Ranked by %B ascending — which names are on sale — not by momentum. Measured on the AI complex over the 2023+ wave, forward 60 days: buying dips beat simply holding by +3.47 pts, while buying strength lost 2.65 pts and top-quartile 12-month momentum lost 3.01 pts. Owning the complex at all was worth +17.95%, which is roughly five times what the timing overlay adds.
%B says where price sits inside its normal trading channel. Below 0.20 means it has pulled back to the bottom of that channel — on sale. Above 1.00 is extended: too stretched to buy, and it returned 2.65 pts below simply holding.
Two studies disagree, so this is not a filter the verdict column applies. 46 large caps, 15y, fwd 60d: dips above the 200-day hit 71% vs 68% below — better odds, but below-200d averaged slightly more (+7.16% vs +6.96%). The AI complex, 2023+: dips below the 200-day were the best bucket of all, +7.49 pts vs the null. The Meta trade in the box below was 11.8% below its 200-day. Above = steadier; below = bigger and lumpier. Pick per your tolerance.
Both halves are gates, and 2y pos is often the binding one. p10 is the 10th-percentile outcome across past 2-year holds — your unlucky-but-realistic case; a −50% p10 means one in ten 2-year holds halved. These are the exact thresholds the verdict column applies, not a rule of thumb.
| %B < 0.20 dip rule | 2026-08-21 @ 549.47 | +35.4% | 18 days before the launch, and META was 11.8% below its 200-day |
| move + volume spike | 2026-09-09 @ 653.17 | +13.9% | the day after the launch |
| follow the analyst | 2026-09-21 @ 741.25 | +0.4% | the move was over |
The 3x pair moves with SOXX, so read SOXX's %B and size with SOXL/SOXS's ATR. SOXS is inverse: its %B means the opposite.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXX semis_etf |
559.34 | +4.93% | 1.23 | +8.5% | +26.3% | 76% | 3.2% | 4.3B | 95% 4w | +7.3% | — | extended |
| SOXL semis_etfleveraged |
141.84 | +14.77% | 1.20 | +23.3% | +25.8% | 41% | 8.9% | 8.1B | 76% 4w | -52.2% | — | leveraged · not rated |
| SOXS semis_etfleveragedinverse |
34.89 | -14.85% | -0.21 | -25.3% | -81.5% | 0% | 13.7% | 2.6B | 0% 4w | -98.7% | — | leveraged · not rated |
META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX — tracked every day whether or not they signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
741.25 | +11.43% | 1.10 | +18.8% | +18.9% | 86% | 3.5% | 10.3B | 79% 4w | -28.1% | — | extended SPIKE +11.4% · 2.6x |
| GOOGL ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
354.97 | +1.55% | 1.03 | +3.7% | +5.2% | 72% | 2.4% | 8.8B | 90% 4w | -0.1% | — | extended |
| MSFT ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
501.61 | +1.59% | 0.62 | +0.6% | +16.6% | 81% | 2.1% | 11.6B | 96% 4w | +10.0% | — | neutral |
| AAPL ndx100megacap |
338.98 | +0.85% | 0.91 | +4.6% | +18.4% | 99% | 2.1% | 13.8B | 99% 4w | +16.2% | — | neutral |
| AMZN ndx100megacap |
258.45 | +1.87% | 0.62 | +0.9% | +7.5% | 70% | 2.3% | 8.9B | 79% 4w | -25.5% | — | neutral |
| NFLX ndx100megacap |
73.36 | +2.19% | 0.07 | -6.7% | -14.0% | 10% | 3.3% | 2.5B | 77% 4w | -39.2% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
%B below 0.2, liquid, and passes the 1–3 year hold gate (≥80% of rolling 2-year windows positive with a 10th percentile above -10%).
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS ndx100 |
165.27 | -1.73% | -0.07 | -7.6% | -13.5% | 0% | 3.3% | 797M | 95% 4w | +8.9% | — | BUY ZONE |
| CSX ndx100 |
45.99 | -2.36% | -0.04 | -6.6% | +5.4% | 65% | 2.2% | 521M | 90% 4w | -0.2% | — | BUY ZONE |
| PCAR ndx100 |
114.73 | -1.15% | -0.01 | -6.7% | -4.5% | 51% | 2.6% | 341M | 98% 4w | +8.1% | — | BUY ZONE |
| XEL ndx100 |
71.85 | -0.62% | 0.01 | -4.0% | -6.8% | 16% | 1.8% | 394M | 82% 4w | -6.9% | — | BUY ZONE |
| ORLY ndx100 |
82.88 | -2.16% | 0.02 | -4.6% | -9.3% | 1% | 2.2% | 540M | 100% 4w | +27.8% | — | BUY ZONE |
| AEP ndx100 |
120.03 | +0.02% | 0.06 | -2.2% | -4.3% | 48% | 1.7% | 470M | 86% 4w | -2.5% | — | BUY ZONE |
| VRSK ndx100 |
172.02 | -1.93% | 0.08 | -6.3% | -10.1% | 17% | 3.7% | 268M | 83% 4w | -9.0% | — | BUY ZONE |
| INTU ndx100 |
304.12 | +0.31% | 0.12 | -8.9% | -25.6% | 11% | 4.5% | 1.2B | 84% 4w | -9.9% | — | BUY ZONE |
| CCEP ndx100 |
100.53 | +0.76% | 0.12 | -4.8% | +2.9% | 60% | 2.1% | 183M | 94% 4w | +5.4% | — | BUY ZONE |
| TRI ndx100 |
95.43 | +1.10% | 0.13 | -7.0% | -2.6% | 24% | 4.5% | 152M | 90% 4w | -1.9% | — | BUY ZONE |
| CTAS ndx100 |
196.88 | -0.38% | 0.13 | -2.1% | +5.4% | 64% | 1.9% | 380M | 99% 4w | +23.3% | — | BUY ZONE |
| LIN ndx100 |
457.50 | -0.63% | 0.15 | -3.5% | -4.7% | 45% | 1.6% | 987M | 100% 4w | +17.9% | — | BUY ZONE |
| VRTX ndx100 |
510.72 | +0.47% | 0.18 | -4.1% | +8.5% | 74% | 2.4% | 582M | 92% 4w | +1.7% | — | BUY ZONE |
| PAYX ndx100 |
115.01 | -0.97% | 0.19 | -4.8% | +12.1% | 72% | 2.3% | 312M | 88% 4w | -2.0% | — | BUY ZONE |
| ODFL ndx100 |
175.36 | +1.36% | 0.20 | -6.0% | -11.6% | 41% | 3.4% | 319M | 88% 4w | -5.7% | — | BUY ZONE |
A move of 5%+ on 2×+ the 20-day average volume. This is a reaction, not a setup — something happened, and the rule does not know what or which direction it resolves.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP ndx100 |
137.92 | +7.33% | 0.46 | -1.0% | +5.9% | 51% | 4.5% | 1.0B | 77% 4w | -61.5% | — | neutral SPIKE +7.3% · 2.1x |
| META ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
741.25 | +11.43% | 1.10 | +18.8% | +18.9% | 86% | 3.5% | 10.3B | 79% 4w | -28.1% | — | extended SPIKE +11.4% · 2.6x |
| AMD ndx100ai_compute |
615.52 | +9.95% | 1.25 | +23.6% | +72.6% | 100% | 4.3% | 12.3B | 89% 4w | -2.7% | — | extended SPIKE +9.9% · 2.3x |
| ARM ndx100ai_compute |
322.90 | +17.16% | 1.39 | +27.5% | +55.1% | 65% | 5.8% | 1.3B | — | — | — | dip · unmeasured SPIKE +17.2% · 3.2x |
| WBD ndx100 |
30.80 | +10.79% | 1.44 | +8.2% | +11.9% | 100% | 1.8% | 513M | 40% 4w | -61.0% | — | extended SPIKE +10.8% · 12.5x |
Dips that fail the hold gate, plus names with no measured edge either way.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FANG ndx100 |
189.27 | -1.64% | -0.08 | -5.7% | +4.2% | 71% | 3.4% | 382M | 68% 4w | -49.1% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| PEP ndx100 |
129.59 | -0.12% | -0.07 | -5.5% | -10.8% | 0% | 1.8% | 1.1B | 78% 4w | -11.1% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| KDP ndx100 |
30.62 | -1.10% | -0.06 | -4.0% | +5.3% | 67% | 2.3% | 362M | 70% 4w | -9.1% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| MDLZ ndx100 |
60.17 | -1.12% | -0.06 | -3.2% | +2.4% | 66% | 2.1% | 479M | 79% 4w | -7.6% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| CPRT ndx100 |
28.91 | -1.26% | -0.00 | -9.2% | -14.9% | 9% | 3.8% | 302M | 87% 4w | -15.7% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| ROP ndx100 |
365.40 | -1.97% | 0.04 | -8.8% | -1.7% | 25% | 2.8% | 289M | 85% 4w | -14.7% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| CMCSA ndx100 |
22.93 | +0.84% | 0.06 | -10.2% | -13.2% | 10% | 3.1% | 667M | 57% 4w | -26.8% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| NFLX ndx100megacap |
73.36 | +2.19% | 0.07 | -6.7% | -14.0% | 10% | 3.3% | 2.5B | 77% 4w | -39.2% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| CSGP ndx100 |
29.04 | -0.17% | 0.09 | -6.3% | -30.6% | 3% | 4.3% | 186M | 62% 4w | -22.5% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| SBUX ndx100 |
94.90 | -0.97% | 0.10 | -7.3% | -2.5% | 58% | 2.5% | 657M | 75% 4w | -8.6% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| NOVT humanoid_disclosed |
134.31 | +0.88% | 0.13 | -5.3% | -3.5% | 50% | 4.2% | 56M | 76% 4w | -21.7% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| MELI ndx100 |
1,820.47 | +1.85% | 0.13 | -4.9% | -1.7% | 28% | 3.3% | 744M | 78% 4w | -24.0% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| RRX humanoid_disclosed |
150.73 | +1.81% | 0.18 | -4.5% | -19.8% | 21% | 4.4% | 206M | 80% 4w | -7.0% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| ALB humanoid_materials |
112.92 | +1.81% | 0.18 | -10.2% | -27.3% | 25% | 4.8% | 272M | 49% 4w | -62.4% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| BKNG ndx100 |
168.52 | +0.37% | 0.20 | -10.1% | -8.4% | 22% | 3.7% | 1.1B | 84% 4w | -5.0% | — | neutral |
| ADBE ndx100 |
249.52 | +0.24% | 0.21 | -6.8% | -5.7% | 33% | 4.0% | 1.2B | 64% 4w | -42.8% | — | neutral |
| KHC ndx100 |
24.37 | -0.25% | 0.21 | -1.9% | +4.8% | 58% | 2.7% | 357M | 37% 4w | -58.1% | — | neutral |
| AXON ndx100 |
452.06 | +0.96% | 0.21 | -12.9% | -10.1% | 25% | 6.1% | 459M | 98% 4w | +22.1% | — | neutral |
| BKR ndx100 |
57.83 | +1.01% | 0.24 | -4.9% | -1.4% | 55% | 3.2% | 446M | 65% 4w | -44.0% | — | neutral |
| COST ndx100 |
898.48 | +0.35% | 0.25 | -2.6% | -6.2% | 21% | 1.6% | 1.9B | 100% 4w | +27.5% | — | neutral |
| TTWO ndx100 |
209.92 | +2.18% | 0.25 | -4.1% | -7.3% | 28% | 3.6% | 512M | 76% 4w | -25.0% | — | neutral |
| ADP ndx100 |
269.94 | -0.47% | 0.27 | -2.1% | +15.0% | 84% | 2.0% | 580M | 93% 4w | +4.3% | — | neutral |
| ADSK ndx100 |
218.85 | +0.88% | 0.31 | -6.2% | -10.0% | 23% | 4.2% | 450M | 74% 4w | -26.7% | — | neutral |
| PYPL ndx100 |
52.62 | +0.40% | 0.32 | -4.5% | +4.5% | 38% | 3.0% | 609M | 54% 4w | -69.6% | — | neutral |
| IDXX ndx100 |
515.30 | +0.71% | 0.32 | -2.6% | -13.6% | 4% | 2.8% | 299M | 77% 4w | -13.7% | — | neutral |
%B above 1.00 — the stall zone, −2.65 pts vs the null at 60 days. Not a short signal; a not-today signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY benchmark |
773.50 | +1.55% | 1.01 | +1.4% | +8.5% | 98% | 0.9% | 33.0B | 98% 4w | +5.4% | — | extended |
| QCOM ndx100 |
194.23 | +9.29% | 1.01 | +11.9% | +16.2% | 57% | 4.6% | 2.0B | 75% 4w | -13.6% | — | extended |
| ANET ai_network |
205.42 | +3.02% | 1.01 | +5.5% | +32.1% | 95% | 4.0% | 1.2B | 86% 4w | -12.2% | — | extended |
| ZS ndx100 |
207.13 | +4.98% | 1.01 | +14.8% | +23.2% | 41% | 4.8% | 411M | 67% 4w | -36.5% | — | extended |
| COHR ai_equipment |
321.52 | +1.31% | 1.02 | +11.6% | +13.3% | 67% | 7.0% | 1.6B | 67% 4w | -43.5% | — | extended |
| MU ndx100ai_memory |
1,043.96 | +2.77% | 1.03 | +8.4% | +62.1% | 84% | 4.7% | 32.1B | 80% 4w | -13.6% | — | extended |
| GOOGL ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
354.97 | +1.55% | 1.03 | +3.7% | +5.2% | 72% | 2.4% | 8.8B | 90% 4w | -0.1% | — | extended |
| MRVL ndx100ai_compute |
257.38 | +5.38% | 1.03 | +12.6% | +61.7% | 76% | 5.7% | 4.9B | 85% 4w | -7.7% | — | extended |
| ETN ai_power |
435.43 | +2.51% | 1.04 | +6.6% | +13.6% | 83% | 3.5% | 774M | 99% 4w | +14.0% | — | extended |
| TXN ndx100 |
270.87 | +1.59% | 1.05 | +3.8% | +11.6% | 67% | 3.3% | 1.8B | 88% 4w | -1.8% | — | extended |
| ARKQ humanoid_etf |
125.49 | +2.69% | 1.05 | +3.0% | +1.1% | 57% | 2.1% | 13M | 76% 4w | -33.3% | — | extended |
| TSM ai_compute |
445.14 | +2.41% | 1.06 | +5.3% | +17.7% | 85% | 2.4% | 4.9B | 83% 4w | -16.0% | — | extended |
| ADI ndx100 |
383.00 | +1.94% | 1.07 | +4.8% | +8.7% | 72% | 3.0% | 1.3B | 98% 4w | +15.1% | — | extended |
| META ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
741.25 | +11.43% | 1.10 | +18.8% | +18.9% | 86% | 3.5% | 10.3B | 79% 4w | -28.1% | — | extended SPIKE +11.4% · 2.6x |
| ISRG ndx100 |
401.65 | +2.12% | 1.12 | +7.7% | -11.6% | 27% | 3.0% | 968M | 85% 4w | -6.6% | — | extended |