Ranked by %B ascending — which names are on sale — not by momentum. Measured on the AI complex over the 2023+ wave, forward 60 days: buying dips beat simply holding by +3.47 pts, while buying strength lost 2.65 pts and top-quartile 12-month momentum lost 3.01 pts. Owning the complex at all was worth +17.95%, which is roughly five times what the timing overlay adds. These are daily entries on the names as they stand today (in-sample, overlapping); the quarterly portfolio test further down did not confirm the dip rule.
Descriptive only. Nothing on this page was measured by regime, so it does not change a verdict. Broad risk-off = QQQ below its 200-day with VIX ≥ 25 or up 20% in 5 days; sector washout = SOXX below its 200-day or under 40% of the AI list above theirs.
Descriptive only; no verdict reads it. A theme leads for a few years and then hands over (the COVID winners kept dipping through late 2021 H2 and did not recover; a one-off analysis, not a committed result). "Breaking" = the theme's equal-weight basket is under its own 200-day while at least 40% of its names sit in the dip band at once; that threshold is a display choice, not a tested rule.
| Theme | Names | Basket vs 200d | Basket 20d | Names above 200d | In dip band | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI compute | 9 | +38.0% | +21.8% | 89% | 1/9 | leading |
| AI memory | 4 | +49.6% | +13.5% | 100% | 0/4 | leading |
| Chip equipment | 8 | +20.1% | +18.8% | 100% | 0/8 | leading |
| AI networking | 3 | +24.5% | +15.0% | 67% | 0/3 | leading |
| AI power | 5 | +2.8% | +2.9% | 60% | 0/5 | leading |
| AI platforms | 6 | +10.7% | +5.8% | 67% | 0/6 | leading |
| Humanoid supply chain | 16 (15 in basket) | +4.3% | +6.9% | 53% | 2/16 | mixed |
| Magnets & materials | 4 | -18.2% | -16.7% | 25% | 4/4 | breaking |
%B says where price sits inside its normal trading channel. Below 0.20 means it has pulled back to the bottom of that channel — on sale. Above 1.00 is extended: too stretched to buy, and it returned 2.65 pts below simply holding.
Two studies disagree, so this is not a filter the verdict column applies. 46 large caps, 15y, fwd 60d: dips above the 200-day hit 71% vs 68% below — better odds, but below-200d averaged slightly more (+7.16% vs +6.96%). The AI complex, 2023+: dips below the 200-day were the best bucket of all, +7.49 pts vs the null. The Meta trade in the box below was 11.8% below its 200-day. Above = steadier; below = bigger and lumpier. Pick per your tolerance.
Both halves are gates, and 2y pos is often the binding one. p10 is the 10th-percentile outcome across past 2-year holds — your unlucky-but-realistic case; a −50% p10 means one in ten 2-year holds halved. These are the exact thresholds the verdict column applies, not a rule of thumb.
| %B < 0.20 dip rule | 2026-08-21 @ 549.47 | +35.4% | 18 days before the launch, and META was 11.8% below its 200-day |
| move + volume spike | 2026-09-09 @ 653.17 | +13.9% | the day after the launch |
| follow the analyst | 2026-09-21 @ 741.25 | +0.4% | the move was over |
The 3x pair moves with SOXX, so read SOXX's %B and size with SOXL/SOXS's ATR. SOXS is inverse: its %B means the opposite.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXX semis ETF semis_etf |
576.33 | +1.35% | 0.83 | +6.9% | +27.2% | 80% | 2.9% | 4.0B | 95% 4w | +7.3% | 73% of 30 med +6% · CVaR -18% |
$1,228 18% | — | neutral |
| SOXL semis ETF semis_etfleveraged |
153.69 | +3.94% | 0.84 | +18.9% | +31.5% | 46% | 7.8% | 7.9B | 76% 4w | -52.2% | 63% of 30 med +9% · CVaR -57% |
— | — | leveraged · not rated |
| SOXS semis ETF semis_etfleveragedinverse |
31.76 | -3.99% | 0.19 | -21.5% | -84.6% | 0% | 11.9% | 2.6B | 0% 4w | -98.7% | 17% of 36 med -21% · CVaR -65% |
— | — | leveraged · not rated |
The ten holdings behind SOXX, their fund weight, and how much of the day each one contributed (fund weight × its move, so together they explain about 61% of the fund).
| Ticker | Fund wt | 1d | Contrib | Trend | vs 20d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 9.43% | +1.09% | +0.102% | above 20d | |
| MU | 8.91% | +3.03% | +0.270% | above 20d | |
| AMD | 8.23% | +0.65% | +0.053% | above 20d | |
| AVGO | 7.48% | -2.15% | -0.161% | BELOW 20d | |
| INTC | 5.09% | -0.19% | -0.010% | above 20d | |
| MRVL | 4.66% | +1.46% | +0.068% | above 20d | |
| TSM | 4.65% | +0.66% | +0.031% | above 20d | |
| AMAT | 4.59% | +3.50% | +0.161% | above 20d | |
| LRCX | 4.27% | +3.53% | +0.151% | above 20d | |
| KLAC | 4.12% | +2.77% | +0.114% | above 20d |
Breadth is context, not a trigger. Reproduce every number here with scripts/soxx_breadth_study.py (8 years of SOXX, entry at the next open). Broad strength has no edge: top-10 weight above its 20-day > 80% was +0.04 pts vs the null at 20 days (n=727; +0.00 at 5d, −0.03 at 1d). Weakness in the holdings (breadth < 20%, or their composite %B < 0.20) pointed the same way as SOXX's own dip signal but smaller (about +0.7 to +0.9 pts vs +1.3) and rests on a few hundred overlapping observations, so treat it as noise-level: it adds nothing you cannot read off SOXX's own %B. Use this table to see why SOXX moved, broad or one name, and take the direction call from SOXX's %B. SOXL and SOXS are daily-reset products and are not rated on this page.
META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX — tracked every day whether or not they signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
725.93 | +0.10% | 0.68 | +5.2% | +15.8% | 80% | 3.6% | 10.7B | 79% 4w | -28.1% | 57% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -25% |
$971 14% | — | neutral |
| GOOGL platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
338.24 | -1.70% | 0.32 | -1.3% | -0.0% | 62% | 2.7% | 8.5B | 90% 4w | -0.1% | 71% of 31 med +5% · CVaR -9% |
$1,299 19% | — | neutral |
| MSFT platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
512.80 | -0.02% | 0.87 | +2.3% | +18.9% | 87% | 2.3% | 11.2B | 96% 4w | +10.0% | 70% of 27 med +7% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AAPL megacap ndx100megacap |
330.32 | -0.81% | 0.45 | -0.4% | +14.5% | 89% | 2.2% | 13.1B | 99% 4w | +16.2% | 70% of 27 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AMZN megacap ndx100megacap |
248.23 | -0.37% | 0.27 | -1.5% | +2.9% | 58% | 2.3% | 8.6B | 79% 4w | -25.5% | 73% of 30 med +6% · CVaR -22% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| NFLX megacap ndx100megacap |
67.85 | -2.49% | 0.09 | -8.7% | -19.4% | 0% | 3.0% | 2.5B | 77% 4w | -39.2% | 74% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -37% |
$1,162 17% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
Any symbol, priced now. The browser cannot call Yahoo directly (no CORS), so this
goes through this site's own /api/quote and then applies the same formulas as the
nightly table, ported from the Python — so a live check and the tables cannot disagree.
Cached 10 minutes.
%B below 0.2, liquid, and passes the 1–3 year hold gate (≥80% of rolling 2-year windows positive with a 10th percentile above -10%).
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT ndx100 |
104.26 | +0.33% | 0.04 | -2.8% | -11.6% | 13% | 2.1% | 2.4B | 98% 4w | +7.6% | 68% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | 7 | BUY ZONE |
| PCAR ndx100 |
109.94 | +0.12% | 0.16 | -6.1% | -8.6% | 41% | 2.4% | 346M | 98% 4w | +8.1% | 61% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | BUY ZONE |
| MNST ndx100 |
42.14 | +1.25% | 0.18 | -2.9% | -0.5% | 53% | 2.4% | 445M | 95% 4w | +3.8% | 66% of 32 med +7% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | BUY ZONE |
| PAYX ndx100 |
100.84 | +2.38% | 0.18 | -9.6% | -1.4% | 39% | 3.1% | 325M | 88% 4w | -2.6% | 66% of 32 med +5% · CVaR -17% |
$1,141 16% | — | BUY ZONE |
| CTAS ndx100 |
195.60 | +0.28% | 0.18 | -1.5% | +4.4% | 62% | 2.0% | 397M | 98% 4w | +22.0% | 67% of 30 med +9% · CVaR -15% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | BUY ZONE |
| AVGO compute ndx100ai_computesoxx_top10 |
343.64 | -2.15% | 0.19 | -2.9% | -6.2% | 27% | 3.1% | 7.7B | 100% 4w | +27.3% | 69% of 29 med +8% · CVaR -15% |
$1,130 16% | — | BUY ZONE |
| VRTX ndx100 |
506.74 | -3.07% | 0.19 | -2.8% | +7.0% | 67% | 2.4% | 566M | 92% 4w | +1.7% | 60% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -12% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | BUY ZONE |
| TMUS ndx100 |
161.73 | -0.83% | 0.19 | -6.0% | -14.7% | 0% | 2.8% | 761M | 94% 4w | +8.5% | 70% of 33 med +7% · CVaR -14% |
$1,267 18% | — | BUY ZONE |
| AXON ndx100 |
422.21 | -0.07% | 0.20 | -8.6% | -15.2% | 18% | 5.4% | 429M | 98% 4w | +21.0% | 59% of 32 med +20% · CVaR -28% |
$653 9% | — | BUY ZONE |
A move of 5%+ on 2×+ the 20-day average volume. This is a reaction, not a setup — something happened, and the rule does not know what or which direction it resolves.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNPS ndx100 |
490.54 | +12.78% | 1.31 | +20.9% | +10.3% | 74% | 3.9% | 657M | 88% 4w | -8.7% | 74% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -22% |
$893 13% | 8 | extended SPIKE +12.8% · 3.3x |
Dips that fail the hold gate, plus names with no measured edge either way.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KHC ndx100 |
22.46 | -1.14% | -0.11 | -7.0% | -3.5% | 29% | 2.8% | 354M | 37% 4w | -58.1% | 40% of 35 med -1% · CVaR -17% |
$1,268 18% | 2 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| MDLZ ndx100 |
57.76 | -0.10% | -0.05 | -4.6% | -1.3% | 53% | 2.0% | 464M | 79% 4w | -7.8% | 59% of 32 med +3% · CVaR -11% |
$1,400 20% cap | 0 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| ALNY ndx100 |
231.18 | -6.31% | -0.03 | -7.4% | -23.9% | 9% | 4.5% | 372M | 80% 4w | -8.5% | 53% of 32 med +4% · CVaR -23% |
$779 11% | 5 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| REGN ndx100 |
734.81 | -3.09% | -0.02 | -6.8% | +0.0% | 61% | 3.0% | 498M | 64% 4w | -31.3% | 47% of 30 med -0% · CVaR -25% |
$1,154 16% | 1 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| PDD ndx100 |
76.50 | -1.85% | 0.08 | -2.9% | -19.2% | 5% | 2.4% | 507M | 63% 4w | -42.8% | 54% of 24 med +5% · CVaR -35% |
$1,400 20% cap | 1 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| MELI ndx100 |
1,685.12 | -2.51% | 0.08 | -7.8% | -8.4% | 17% | 3.4% | 810M | 78% 4w | -24.0% | 57% of 30 med +10% · CVaR -30% |
$1,031 15% | 2 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| PEPearnings in 4 sessions ndx100 |
125.60 | -0.88% | 0.08 | -5.2% | -13.2% | 0% | 1.8% | 1.0B | 78% 4w | -11.2% | 58% of 31 med +2% · CVaR -8% |
$1,400 20% cap | 9 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| NFLX megacap ndx100megacap |
67.85 | -2.49% | 0.09 | -8.7% | -19.4% | 0% | 3.0% | 2.5B | 77% 4w | -39.2% | 74% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -37% |
$1,162 17% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| TTD ndx100 |
12.10 | -0.58% | 0.13 | -11.0% | -46.7% | 0% | 4.8% | 268M | 70% 4w | -47.5% | 57% of 30 med +11% · CVaR -40% |
$729 10% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| ALB materials humanoid_materials |
105.03 | -0.71% | 0.17 | -8.8% | -32.1% | 16% | 4.4% | 265M | 49% 4w | -62.4% | 56% of 32 med +2% · CVaR -27% |
$790 11% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| FCX materials humanoid_materials |
69.28 | -1.03% | 0.19 | -3.5% | +9.4% | 74% | 3.9% | 832M | 71% 4w | -27.3% | 55% of 31 med +5% · CVaR -32% |
$888 13% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| TSLA humanoid ndx100humanoid_oem |
354.11 | -0.20% | 0.19 | -3.0% | -10.1% | 29% | 3.3% | 12.0B | 74% 4w | -33.4% | 50% of 32 med +2% · CVaR -37% |
$1,048 15% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| CPRT ndx100 |
27.29 | +0.04% | 0.20 | -8.5% | -18.7% | 1% | 3.2% | 282M | 86% 4w | -16.8% | 62% of 32 med +9% · CVaR -17% |
$1,078 15% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| CMCSA ndx100 |
21.70 | -0.28% | 0.22 | -8.0% | -17.6% | 1% | 3.0% | 655M | 57% 4w | -27.0% | 47% of 32 med -0% · CVaR -19% |
$1,165 17% | — | neutral |
| CSX ndx100 |
46.54 | +0.06% | 0.22 | -2.5% | +5.7% | 67% | 1.9% | 503M | 90% 4w | -0.2% | 70% of 33 med +5% · CVaR -12% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| KDP ndx100 |
30.69 | +1.15% | 0.23 | -2.1% | +5.9% | 71% | 2.7% | 339M | 70% 4w | -9.3% | 55% of 29 med +1% · CVaR -10% |
$1,280 18% | — | neutral |
| TTWO ndx100 |
203.62 | -1.87% | 0.24 | -2.8% | -9.4% | 19% | 3.3% | 498M | 76% 4w | -25.0% | 50% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -15% |
$1,053 15% | — | neutral |
| CSGP ndx100 |
27.72 | +1.17% | 0.24 | -5.3% | -31.1% | 1% | 4.1% | 183M | 62% 4w | -22.9% | 58% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -24% |
$848 12% | — | neutral |
| FANG ndx100 |
185.51 | +0.92% | 0.24 | -4.6% | +1.4% | 66% | 2.9% | 376M | 68% 4w | -49.1% | 50% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -34% |
$1,196 17% | — | neutral |
| VRSK ndx100 |
168.38 | +0.32% | 0.24 | -3.9% | -11.1% | 14% | 3.2% | 244M | 83% 4w | -9.8% | 58% of 31 med +2% · CVaR -15% |
$1,107 16% | — | neutral |
| ORCL platform ai_platform |
138.07 | +0.56% | 0.25 | -5.8% | -15.0% | 12% | 5.0% | 4.2B | 98% 4w | +14.4% | 60% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -23% |
$703 10% | — | neutral |
| CDW ndx100 |
135.83 | +5.98% | 0.25 | -5.6% | +4.0% | 65% | 4.4% | 224M | 79% 4w | -31.1% | 69% of 32 med +7% · CVaR -17% |
$789 11% | — | neutral |
| BKNG ndx100 |
160.28 | -1.61% | 0.25 | -5.8% | -12.0% | 11% | 3.8% | 1.1B | 84% 4w | -5.0% | 75% of 32 med +4% · CVaR -19% |
$910 13% | — | neutral |
| BKR ndx100 |
55.62 | +1.31% | 0.25 | -4.8% | -5.7% | 47% | 2.9% | 435M | 66% 4w | -44.0% | 43% of 30 med -0% · CVaR -29% |
$1,198 17% | — | neutral |
| XEL ndx100 |
70.55 | +0.10% | 0.26 | -2.8% | -8.3% | 9% | 1.9% | 393M | 82% 4w | -6.9% | 61% of 31 med +3% · CVaR -10% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
%B above 1.00 — the stall zone, −2.65 pts vs the null at 60 days. Not a short signal; a not-today signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PWR power ai_power |
662.60 | +3.14% | 1.01 | +4.3% | +9.7% | 67% | 3.3% | 581M | 93% 4w | +4.6% | 73% of 30 med +7% · CVaR -12% |
$1,075 15% | — | extended |
| CIEN network ai_network |
379.14 | +7.77% | 1.02 | +9.5% | -2.9% | 48% | 5.9% | 757M | 76% 4w | -15.6% | 63% of 30 med +8% · CVaR -20% |
$596 9% | — | extended |
| AMAT equipment ndx100ai_equipmentsoxx_top10 |
529.30 | +3.50% | 1.02 | +14.1% | +24.4% | 62% | 3.7% | 3.2B | 92% 4w | +1.6% | 70% of 30 med +17% · CVaR -17% |
$943 13% | — | extended |
| ON humanoid ndx100humanoid_association |
80.08 | +4.18% | 1.04 | +9.4% | -0.3% | 40% | 4.2% | 740M | 74% 4w | -38.7% | 59% of 32 med +5% · CVaR -30% |
$824 12% | — | extended |
| LITE network ndx100ai_network |
1,045.78 | +7.67% | 1.07 | +12.5% | +41.0% | 99% | 6.4% | 3.7B | 66% 4w | -46.0% | 61% of 33 med +2% · CVaR -24% |
$545 8% | — | extended |
| CDNS ndx100 |
350.73 | +6.22% | 1.08 | +16.4% | +7.7% | 56% | 3.5% | 703M | 98% 4w | +23.8% | 69% of 32 med +7% · CVaR -16% |
$1,007 14% | — | extended |
| SNPS ndx100 |
490.54 | +12.78% | 1.31 | +20.9% | +10.3% | 74% | 3.9% | 657M | 88% 4w | -8.7% | 74% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -22% |
$893 13% | 8 | extended SPIKE +12.8% · 3.3x |
Buy the dip names at each quarter-end, hold to the next, versus the same number of names drawn at random from the same list (2000 draws), after 0.20% costs. Thresholds were written before each run. Neither variant cleared them, so nothing here changes the verdicts above. The universe is today's AI leaders, which flatters dip entries; the mean is carried by one quarter (2026-03-31) in v1.
| Test | signal qtrs | mean net excess | qtrs positive | ex best qtr | p vs random | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1 · dip (%B < 0.20) | 23 | +4.2 pts | 52% | +1.0 pts | 0.071 | not promoted (failed: P1, P4) |
| v2 · dip + above 200-day | 18 | +3.3 pts | 39% | -4.8 pts | 0.259 | not promoted (failed: P1, P3, P4, P5, P6) |
The 1–3 year durability gate cannot be tested point-in-time on 10 years of data (needs 2016 prior sessions); it is judged forward only. Method and thresholds: docs/experiments/2026-09-24-preregistration-qr-s1-v{1,2}.md.
Daily entries at the next open on the 34 AI stocks over 10 years, edge vs every session for the same names. The rule was fixed before this ran: the grid can only demote the default, never pick a different cell. Result: not demoted — it sits on a plateau. Deeper dips test a little better and every cell is positive, but the default edge is +1.31 pts over 10 years, well below the +3.47 pts measured on 2023+ alone.
| edge vs null, pts | 20d | 40d | 60d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| %B < 0.10 | +1.24 | +1.52 | +1.72 | +1.34 |
| %B < 0.15 | +1.13 | +1.35 | +1.52 | +1.09 |
| %B < 0.20 | +0.98 | +1.17 | +1.31 | +0.63 |
| %B < 0.25 | +0.85 | +1.05 | +1.28 | +0.57 |
| %B < 0.30 | +0.77 | +1.00 | +1.31 | +0.59 |
By year (default cell): 2016 +0.5% · 2017 +2.2% · 2018 +2.1% · 2019 +4.1% · 2020 +8.1% · 2021 +3.2% · 2022 +3.8% · 2023 +4.4% · 2024 +3.5% · 2025 -3.3% · 2026 +4.2%
By market: QQQ above 200 +0.72% · QQQ below 200 +2.16%
Same rule on indices since 1999 (no hand-picked names): QQQ +0.58% · SPY +0.85% · XLK +0.39% — positive on at least 2 of 3. Episodes are counted per name, and the names dip together, so the independent count is far lower than the raw one. Source: scripts/quarterly_rotation/robustness.py.