Nasdaq-100 + the AI / humanoid complex · 146 of 147 resolved

AI & Humanoid Screen

Ranked by %B ascending — which names are on sale — not by momentum. Measured on the AI complex over the 2023+ wave, forward 60 days: buying dips beat simply holding by +3.47 pts, while buying strength lost 2.65 pts and top-quartile 12-month momentum lost 3.01 pts. Owning the complex at all was worth +17.95%, which is roughly five times what the timing overlay adds.

1. Is it on sale?%B < 0.20

%B says where price sits inside its normal trading channel. Below 0.20 means it has pulled back to the bottom of that channel — on sale. Above 1.00 is extended: too stretched to buy, and it returned 2.65 pts below simply holding.

2. Above or below the 200-day?a trade-off, not a gate

Two studies disagree, so this is not a filter the verdict column applies. 46 large caps, 15y, fwd 60d: dips above the 200-day hit 71% vs 68% below — better odds, but below-200d averaged slightly more (+7.16% vs +6.96%). The AI complex, 2023+: dips below the 200-day were the best bucket of all, +7.49 pts vs the null. The Meta trade in the box below was 11.8% below its 200-day. Above = steadier; below = bigger and lumpier. Pick per your tolerance.

3. Does it survive bad timing? 2y pos ≥ 80% AND 2y p10 > -10%

Both halves are gates, and 2y pos is often the binding one. p10 is the 10th-percentile outcome across past 2-year holds — your unlucky-but-realistic case; a −50% p10 means one in ten 2-year holds halved. These are the exact thresholds the verdict column applies, not a rule of thumb.

The exit is a rule, not a guess — but be clear which rule. Everything in these tables is a fixed hold: the +3.47 / −2.65 / +7.49 pt figures are 60 trading days, entry at the next open, and the 2y pos / 2y p10 columns are 504-day holds. Nothing on this page measures a middle-band exit.
Selling on the first close above the 20-day middle band is the rule used by the separate SOXX/SOXL/SOXS band strategy in the morning brief, and it is a reasonable discipline — it just is not what produced these numbers. Reproduce the tabulated edge by holding the horizon, not by exiting at the midband.
Why there are two signals. Meta launched Muse on 2026-09-08 and ran +20.3% before the first analyst upgrade on 09-21 — following that upgrade captured 2% of the move. Replaying these rules over those sessions:
%B < 0.20 dip rule2026-08-21 @ 549.47+35.4%18 days before the launch, and META was 11.8% below its 200-day
move + volume spike2026-09-09 @ 653.17+13.9%the day after the launch
follow the analyst2026-09-21 @ 741.25+0.4%the move was over
The dip rule caught it by accident — it was buying a drawdown, not predicting a product. The spike rule reacts to the catalyst, late but not uselessly. They are labelled separately so a reaction is never mistaken for a setup.

Semis — SOXX / SOXL / SOXS

The 3x pair moves with SOXX, so read SOXX's %B and size with SOXL/SOXS's ATR. SOXS is inverse: its %B means the opposite.

TickerClose1d%Bvs 20dvs 200drangeATR$vol/d2y pos2y p10msgsVerdict
SOXX
semis_etf		 559.34+4.93% 1.23 +8.5%+26.3%76% 3.2%4.3B 95% 4w +7.3%— extended
SOXL
semis_etfleveraged		 141.84+14.77% 1.20 +23.3%+25.8%41% 8.9%8.1B 76% 4w -52.2%— leveraged · not rated
SOXS
semis_etfleveragedinverse		 34.89-14.85% -0.21 -25.3%-81.5%0% 13.7%2.6B 0% 4w -98.7%— leveraged · not rated

Mega caps

META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX — tracked every day whether or not they signal.

TickerClose1d%Bvs 20dvs 200drangeATR$vol/d2y pos2y p10msgsVerdict
META
ndx100ai_platformmegacap		 741.25+11.43% 1.10 +18.8%+18.9%86% 3.5%10.3B 79% 4w -28.1%— extended
SPIKE +11.4% · 2.6x
GOOGL
ndx100ai_platformmegacap		 354.97+1.55% 1.03 +3.7%+5.2%72% 2.4%8.8B 90% 4w -0.1%— extended
MSFT
ndx100ai_platformmegacap		 501.61+1.59% 0.62 +0.6%+16.6%81% 2.1%11.6B 96% 4w +10.0%— neutral
AAPL
ndx100megacap		 338.98+0.85% 0.91 +4.6%+18.4%99% 2.1%13.8B 99% 4w +16.2%— neutral
AMZN
ndx100megacap		 258.45+1.87% 0.62 +0.9%+7.5%70% 2.3%8.9B 79% 4w -25.5%— neutral
NFLX
ndx100megacap		 73.36+2.19% 0.07 -6.7%-14.0%10% 3.3%2.5B 77% 4w -39.2%— DIP · FAILS HOLD

Buy zone

%B below 0.2, liquid, and passes the 1–3 year hold gate (≥80% of rolling 2-year windows positive with a 10th percentile above -10%).

TickerClose1d%Bvs 20dvs 200drangeATR$vol/d2y pos2y p10msgsVerdict
TMUS
ndx100		 165.27-1.73% -0.07 -7.6%-13.5%0% 3.3%797M 95% 4w +8.9%— BUY ZONE
CSX
ndx100		 45.99-2.36% -0.04 -6.6%+5.4%65% 2.2%521M 90% 4w -0.2%— BUY ZONE
PCAR
ndx100		 114.73-1.15% -0.01 -6.7%-4.5%51% 2.6%341M 98% 4w +8.1%— BUY ZONE
XEL
ndx100		 71.85-0.62% 0.01 -4.0%-6.8%16% 1.8%394M 82% 4w -6.9%— BUY ZONE
ORLY
ndx100		 82.88-2.16% 0.02 -4.6%-9.3%1% 2.2%540M 100% 4w +27.8%— BUY ZONE
AEP
ndx100		 120.03+0.02% 0.06 -2.2%-4.3%48% 1.7%470M 86% 4w -2.5%— BUY ZONE
VRSK
ndx100		 172.02-1.93% 0.08 -6.3%-10.1%17% 3.7%268M 83% 4w -9.0%— BUY ZONE
INTU
ndx100		 304.12+0.31% 0.12 -8.9%-25.6%11% 4.5%1.2B 84% 4w -9.9%— BUY ZONE
CCEP
ndx100		 100.53+0.76% 0.12 -4.8%+2.9%60% 2.1%183M 94% 4w +5.4%— BUY ZONE
TRI
ndx100		 95.43+1.10% 0.13 -7.0%-2.6%24% 4.5%152M 90% 4w -1.9%— BUY ZONE
CTAS
ndx100		 196.88-0.38% 0.13 -2.1%+5.4%64% 1.9%380M 99% 4w +23.3%— BUY ZONE
LIN
ndx100		 457.50-0.63% 0.15 -3.5%-4.7%45% 1.6%987M 100% 4w +17.9%— BUY ZONE
VRTX
ndx100		 510.72+0.47% 0.18 -4.1%+8.5%74% 2.4%582M 92% 4w +1.7%— BUY ZONE
PAYX
ndx100		 115.01-0.97% 0.19 -4.8%+12.1%72% 2.3%312M 88% 4w -2.0%— BUY ZONE
ODFL
ndx100		 175.36+1.36% 0.20 -6.0%-11.6%41% 3.4%319M 88% 4w -5.7%— BUY ZONE

Catalyst spikes today

A move of 5%+ on 2×+ the 20-day average volume. This is a reaction, not a setup — something happened, and the rule does not know what or which direction it resolves.

TickerClose1d%Bvs 20dvs 200drangeATR$vol/d2y pos2y p10msgsVerdict
SHOP
ndx100		 137.92+7.33% 0.46 -1.0%+5.9%51% 4.5%1.0B 77% 4w -61.5%— neutral
SPIKE +7.3% · 2.1x
META
ndx100ai_platformmegacap		 741.25+11.43% 1.10 +18.8%+18.9%86% 3.5%10.3B 79% 4w -28.1%— extended
SPIKE +11.4% · 2.6x
AMD
ndx100ai_compute		 615.52+9.95% 1.25 +23.6%+72.6%100% 4.3%12.3B 89% 4w -2.7%— extended
SPIKE +9.9% · 2.3x
ARM
ndx100ai_compute		 322.90+17.16% 1.39 +27.5%+55.1%65% 5.8%1.3B — —— dip · unmeasured
SPIKE +17.2% · 3.2x
WBD
ndx100		 30.80+10.79% 1.44 +8.2%+11.9%100% 1.8%513M 40% 4w -61.0%— extended
SPIKE +10.8% · 12.5x

Near the band / neutral

Dips that fail the hold gate, plus names with no measured edge either way.

TickerClose1d%Bvs 20dvs 200drangeATR$vol/d2y pos2y p10msgsVerdict
FANG
ndx100		 189.27-1.64% -0.08 -5.7%+4.2%71% 3.4%382M 68% 4w -49.1%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
PEP
ndx100		 129.59-0.12% -0.07 -5.5%-10.8%0% 1.8%1.1B 78% 4w -11.1%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
KDP
ndx100		 30.62-1.10% -0.06 -4.0%+5.3%67% 2.3%362M 70% 4w -9.1%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
MDLZ
ndx100		 60.17-1.12% -0.06 -3.2%+2.4%66% 2.1%479M 79% 4w -7.6%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
CPRT
ndx100		 28.91-1.26% -0.00 -9.2%-14.9%9% 3.8%302M 87% 4w -15.7%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
ROP
ndx100		 365.40-1.97% 0.04 -8.8%-1.7%25% 2.8%289M 85% 4w -14.7%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
CMCSA
ndx100		 22.93+0.84% 0.06 -10.2%-13.2%10% 3.1%667M 57% 4w -26.8%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
NFLX
ndx100megacap		 73.36+2.19% 0.07 -6.7%-14.0%10% 3.3%2.5B 77% 4w -39.2%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
CSGP
ndx100		 29.04-0.17% 0.09 -6.3%-30.6%3% 4.3%186M 62% 4w -22.5%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
SBUX
ndx100		 94.90-0.97% 0.10 -7.3%-2.5%58% 2.5%657M 75% 4w -8.6%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
NOVT
humanoid_disclosed		 134.31+0.88% 0.13 -5.3%-3.5%50% 4.2%56M 76% 4w -21.7%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
MELI
ndx100		 1,820.47+1.85% 0.13 -4.9%-1.7%28% 3.3%744M 78% 4w -24.0%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
RRX
humanoid_disclosed		 150.73+1.81% 0.18 -4.5%-19.8%21% 4.4%206M 80% 4w -7.0%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
ALB
humanoid_materials		 112.92+1.81% 0.18 -10.2%-27.3%25% 4.8%272M 49% 4w -62.4%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
BKNG
ndx100		 168.52+0.37% 0.20 -10.1%-8.4%22% 3.7%1.1B 84% 4w -5.0%— neutral
ADBE
ndx100		 249.52+0.24% 0.21 -6.8%-5.7%33% 4.0%1.2B 64% 4w -42.8%— neutral
KHC
ndx100		 24.37-0.25% 0.21 -1.9%+4.8%58% 2.7%357M 37% 4w -58.1%— neutral
AXON
ndx100		 452.06+0.96% 0.21 -12.9%-10.1%25% 6.1%459M 98% 4w +22.1%— neutral
BKR
ndx100		 57.83+1.01% 0.24 -4.9%-1.4%55% 3.2%446M 65% 4w -44.0%— neutral
COST
ndx100		 898.48+0.35% 0.25 -2.6%-6.2%21% 1.6%1.9B 100% 4w +27.5%— neutral
TTWO
ndx100		 209.92+2.18% 0.25 -4.1%-7.3%28% 3.6%512M 76% 4w -25.0%— neutral
ADP
ndx100		 269.94-0.47% 0.27 -2.1%+15.0%84% 2.0%580M 93% 4w +4.3%— neutral
ADSK
ndx100		 218.85+0.88% 0.31 -6.2%-10.0%23% 4.2%450M 74% 4w -26.7%— neutral
PYPL
ndx100		 52.62+0.40% 0.32 -4.5%+4.5%38% 3.0%609M 54% 4w -69.6%— neutral
IDXX
ndx100		 515.30+0.71% 0.32 -2.6%-13.6%4% 2.8%299M 77% 4w -13.7%— neutral

Extended

%B above 1.00 — the stall zone, −2.65 pts vs the null at 60 days. Not a short signal; a not-today signal.

TickerClose1d%Bvs 20dvs 200drangeATR$vol/d2y pos2y p10msgsVerdict
SPY
benchmark		 773.50+1.55% 1.01 +1.4%+8.5%98% 0.9%33.0B 98% 4w +5.4%— extended
QCOM
ndx100		 194.23+9.29% 1.01 +11.9%+16.2%57% 4.6%2.0B 75% 4w -13.6%— extended
ANET
ai_network		 205.42+3.02% 1.01 +5.5%+32.1%95% 4.0%1.2B 86% 4w -12.2%— extended
ZS
ndx100		 207.13+4.98% 1.01 +14.8%+23.2%41% 4.8%411M 67% 4w -36.5%— extended
COHR
ai_equipment		 321.52+1.31% 1.02 +11.6%+13.3%67% 7.0%1.6B 67% 4w -43.5%— extended
MU
ndx100ai_memory		 1,043.96+2.77% 1.03 +8.4%+62.1%84% 4.7%32.1B 80% 4w -13.6%— extended
GOOGL
ndx100ai_platformmegacap		 354.97+1.55% 1.03 +3.7%+5.2%72% 2.4%8.8B 90% 4w -0.1%— extended
MRVL
ndx100ai_compute		 257.38+5.38% 1.03 +12.6%+61.7%76% 5.7%4.9B 85% 4w -7.7%— extended
ETN
ai_power		 435.43+2.51% 1.04 +6.6%+13.6%83% 3.5%774M 99% 4w +14.0%— extended
TXN
ndx100		 270.87+1.59% 1.05 +3.8%+11.6%67% 3.3%1.8B 88% 4w -1.8%— extended
ARKQ
humanoid_etf		 125.49+2.69% 1.05 +3.0%+1.1%57% 2.1%13M 76% 4w -33.3%— extended
TSM
ai_compute		 445.14+2.41% 1.06 +5.3%+17.7%85% 2.4%4.9B 83% 4w -16.0%— extended
ADI
ndx100		 383.00+1.94% 1.07 +4.8%+8.7%72% 3.0%1.3B 98% 4w +15.1%— extended
META
ndx100ai_platformmegacap		 741.25+11.43% 1.10 +18.8%+18.9%86% 3.5%10.3B 79% 4w -28.1%— extended
SPIKE +11.4% · 2.6x
ISRG
ndx100		 401.65+2.12% 1.12 +7.7%-11.6%27% 3.0%968M 85% 4w -6.6%— extended