Ranked by %B ascending — which names are on sale — not by momentum. Measured on the AI complex over the 2023+ wave, forward 60 days: buying dips beat simply holding by +3.47 pts, while buying strength lost 2.65 pts and top-quartile 12-month momentum lost 3.01 pts. Owning the complex at all was worth +17.95%, which is roughly five times what the timing overlay adds. These are daily entries on the names as they stand today (in-sample, overlapping); the quarterly portfolio test further down did not confirm the dip rule.
Descriptive only. Nothing on this page was measured by regime, so it does not change a verdict. Broad risk-off = QQQ below its 200-day with VIX ≥ 25 or up 20% in 5 days; sector washout = SOXX below its 200-day or under 40% of the AI list above theirs.
Descriptive only; no verdict reads it. A theme leads for a few years and then hands over (the COVID winners kept dipping through late 2021 H2 and did not recover; a one-off analysis, not a committed result). "Breaking" = the theme's equal-weight basket is under its own 200-day while at least 40% of its names sit in the dip band at once; that threshold is a display choice, not a tested rule.
| Theme | Names | Basket vs 200d | Basket 20d | Names above 200d | In dip band | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI compute | 9 | +13.5% | -11.0% | 67% | 0/9 | leading |
| AI memory | 4 | +5.4% | -21.1% | 50% | 0/4 | mixed |
| Chip equipment | 8 | -10.4% | -19.8% | 25% | 2/8 | weak |
| AI networking | 3 | +3.7% | -8.4% | 67% | 0/3 | leading |
| AI power | 5 | -9.6% | -10.3% | 0% | 1/5 | weak |
| AI platforms | 6 | +9.3% | -0.4% | 50% | 2/6 | mixed |
| Humanoid supply chain | 16 (15 in basket) | -0.3% | -1.9% | 60% | 1/16 | weak |
| Magnets & materials | 4 | -21.5% | -9.7% | 25% | 1/4 | weak |
%B says where price sits inside its normal trading channel. Below 0.20 means it has pulled back to the bottom of that channel — on sale. Above 1.00 is extended: too stretched to buy, and it returned 2.65 pts below simply holding.
Two studies disagree, so this is not a filter the verdict column applies. 46 large caps, 15y, fwd 60d: dips above the 200-day hit 71% vs 68% below — better odds, but below-200d averaged slightly more (+7.16% vs +6.96%). The AI complex, 2023+: dips below the 200-day were the best bucket of all, +7.49 pts vs the null. The Meta trade in the box below was 11.8% below its 200-day. Above = steadier; below = bigger and lumpier. Pick per your tolerance.
Both halves are gates, and 2y pos is often the binding one. p10 is the 10th-percentile outcome across past 2-year holds — your unlucky-but-realistic case; a −50% p10 means one in ten 2-year holds halved. These are the exact thresholds the verdict column applies, not a rule of thumb.
| %B < 0.20 dip rule | 2026-08-21 @ 549.47 | +35.4% | 18 days before the launch, and META was 11.8% below its 200-day |
| move + volume spike | 2026-09-09 @ 653.17 | +13.9% | the day after the launch |
| follow the analyst | 2026-09-21 @ 741.25 | +0.4% | the move was over |
The 3x pair moves with SOXX, so read SOXX's %B and size with SOXL/SOXS's ATR. SOXS is inverse: its %B means the opposite.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXX semis ETF semis_etf |
511.06 | +3.91% | 0.34 | -4.5% | +8.0% | 63% | 3.7% | 4.0B | 95% 4w | +7.3% | 72% of 29 med +5% · CVaR -18% |
$952 14% | — | neutral |
| SOXL semis ETF semis_etfleveraged |
101.08 | +11.69% | 0.31 | -17.8% | -18.2% | 26% | 12.3% | 7.8B | 76% 4w | -52.2% | 62% of 29 med +5% · CVaR -57% |
— | — | leveraged · not rated |
| SOXS semis ETF semis_etfleveragedinverse |
42.50 | -11.42% | 0.58 | +6.6% | -73.2% | 1% | 10.9% | 2.5B | 0% 4w | -98.7% | 17% of 36 med -25% · CVaR -65% |
— | — | leveraged · not rated |
The ten holdings behind SOXX, their fund weight, and how much of the day each one contributed (fund weight × its move, so together they explain about 61% of the fund).
| Ticker | Fund wt | 1d | Contrib | Trend | vs 20d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 9.43% | +0.90% | +0.085% | BELOW 20d | |
| MU | 8.91% | +2.77% | +0.247% | BELOW 20d | |
| AMD earnings in 4 sessions | 8.23% | +5.45% | +0.449% | BELOW 20d | |
| AVGO | 7.48% | +4.00% | +0.299% | BELOW 20d | |
| INTC earnings in 1 session | 5.09% | +3.61% | +0.184% | BELOW 20d | |
| MRVL | 4.66% | +4.19% | +0.195% | BELOW 20d | |
| TSM | 4.65% | +2.95% | +0.137% | BELOW 20d | |
| AMAT | 4.59% | +2.15% | +0.099% | BELOW 20d | |
| LRCX | 4.27% | +1.41% | +0.060% | BELOW 20d | |
| KLAC earnings today | 4.12% | +2.98% | +0.123% | BELOW 20d |
Breadth is context, not a trigger. Reproduce every number here with scripts/soxx_breadth_study.py (8 years of SOXX, entry at the next open). Broad strength has no edge: top-10 weight above its 20-day > 80% was +0.04 pts vs the null at 20 days (n=727; +0.00 at 5d, −0.03 at 1d). Weakness in the holdings (breadth < 20%, or their composite %B < 0.20) pointed the same way as SOXX's own dip signal but smaller (about +0.7 to +0.9 pts vs +1.3) and rests on a few hundred overlapping observations, so treat it as noise-level: it adds nothing you cannot read off SOXX's own %B. Use this table to see why SOXX moved, broad or one name, and take the direction call from SOXX's %B. SOXL and SOXS are daily-reset products and are not rated on this page.
META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX — tracked every day whether or not they signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
620.19 | -1.64% | -0.05 | -12.3% | -1.8% | 38% | 4.0% | 11.4B | 79% 4w | -28.1% | 57% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -25% |
$882 13% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| GOOGLearnings today platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
320.58 | +1.19% | 0.05 | -5.9% | -6.0% | 40% | 2.6% | 7.8B | 90% 4w | -0.1% | 71% of 31 med +5% · CVaR -9% |
$1,361 19% | 30 | BUY ZONE |
| MSFTearnings today platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
531.33 | -0.24% | 0.57 | +0.4% | +21.9% | 94% | 2.1% | 10.6B | 96% 4w | +10.0% | 70% of 27 med +7% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AAPLearnings in 3 sessions megacap ndx100megacap |
347.10 | +0.93% | 0.84 | +2.1% | +17.7% | 99% | 1.8% | 12.4B | 99% 4w | +16.2% | 69% of 26 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AMZNearnings in 1 session megacap ndx100megacap |
253.10 | +1.61% | 0.41 | -0.7% | +4.0% | 64% | 2.5% | 8.6B | 79% 4w | -25.5% | 72% of 29 med +6% · CVaR -22% |
$1,382 20% | — | neutral |
| NFLX megacap ndx100megacap |
62.52 | -2.16% | -0.08 | -8.7% | -23.8% | 0% | 3.4% | 2.4B | 76% 4w | -39.2% | 73% of 30 med +7% · CVaR -37% |
$1,029 15% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
Any symbol, priced now. The browser cannot call Yahoo directly (no CORS), so this
goes through this site's own /api/quote and then applies the same formulas as the
nightly table, ported from the Python — so a live check and the tables cannot disagree.
Cached 10 minutes.
%B below 0.2, liquid, and passes the 1–3 year hold gate (≥80% of rolling 2-year windows positive with a 10th percentile above -10%).
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCARearnings reported last session ndx100 |
103.73 | -0.61% | -0.15 | -4.5% | -13.5% | 25% | 2.8% | 332M | 98% 4w | +8.1% | 61% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,257 18% | 0 | BUY ZONE |
| BKNGearnings in 4 sessions ndx100 |
150.14 | -1.96% | -0.12 | -5.7% | -15.2% | 0% | 3.6% | 1.1B | 83% 4w | -5.4% | 75% of 32 med +4% · CVaR -19% |
$984 14% | 12 | BUY ZONE |
| GOOGLearnings today platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
320.58 | +1.19% | 0.05 | -5.9% | -6.0% | 40% | 2.6% | 7.8B | 90% 4w | -0.1% | 71% of 31 med +5% · CVaR -9% |
$1,361 19% | 30 | BUY ZONE |
| PH humanoid humanoid_association |
900.73 | -0.41% | 0.08 | -5.0% | -4.9% | 45% | 2.7% | 562M | 97% 4w | +7.4% | 68% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -23% |
$1,309 19% | 0 | BUY ZONE |
| TMUSearnings today ndx100 |
146.83 | -0.07% | 0.12 | -6.9% | -21.1% | 0% | 3.7% | 788M | 93% 4w | +7.6% | 70% of 33 med +7% · CVaR -14% |
$941 13% | 14 | BUY ZONE |
| LRCX equipment ndx100ai_equipmentsoxx_top10 |
240.85 | +1.41% | 0.18 | -17.5% | -15.0% | 35% | 5.9% | 2.6B | 93% 4w | +7.4% | 64% of 28 med +6% · CVaR -18% |
$595 9% | 6 | BUY ZONE |
| KLACearnings today equipment ndx100ai_equipmentsoxx_top10 |
153.66 | +2.98% | 0.19 | -14.1% | -15.4% | 23% | 5.0% | 1.7B | 100% 4w | +31.7% | 80% of 30 med +8% · CVaR -13% |
$699 10% | 9 | BUY ZONE |
| PWRearnings in 1 session power ai_power |
578.83 | +2.64% | 0.20 | -9.9% | -7.1% | 45% | 4.8% | 601M | 93% 4w | +4.6% | 73% of 30 med +7% · CVaR -12% |
$731 10% | — | BUY ZONE |
A move of 5%+ on 2×+ the 20-day average volume. This is a reaction, not a setup — something happened, and the rule does not know what or which direction it resolves.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDNS ndx100 |
343.08 | +6.49% | 0.62 | +2.1% | +4.8% | 51% | 3.8% | 704M | 98% 4w | +23.0% | 69% of 32 med +8% · CVaR -16% |
$916 13% | 2 | neutral SPIKE +6.5% · 2.0x |
| TELearnings today humanoid humanoid_association |
225.35 | +5.37% | 1.12 | +4.8% | +6.3% | 60% | 2.7% | 369M | 83% 4w | -7.9% | 66% of 32 med +5% · CVaR -20% |
$1,303 19% | 9 | extended SPIKE +5.4% · 2.2x |
| BKR ndx100 |
59.00 | +5.34% | 1.20 | +5.4% | -1.5% | 60% | 3.0% | 380M | 67% 4w | -44.0% | 43% of 30 med -0% · CVaR -29% |
$1,160 17% | 6 | extended SPIKE +5.3% · 2.2x |
Dips that fail the hold gate, plus names with no measured edge either way.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX megacap ndx100megacap |
62.52 | -2.16% | -0.08 | -8.7% | -23.8% | 0% | 3.4% | 2.4B | 76% 4w | -39.2% | 73% of 30 med +7% · CVaR -37% |
$1,029 15% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| META platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
620.19 | -1.64% | -0.05 | -12.3% | -1.8% | 38% | 4.0% | 11.4B | 79% 4w | -28.1% | 57% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -25% |
$882 13% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| MELIearnings in 5 sessions ndx100 |
1,680.51 | +0.71% | 0.05 | -7.4% | -7.7% | 16% | 3.9% | 853M | 77% 4w | -24.0% | 57% of 30 med +10% · CVaR -30% |
$890 13% | 5 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| DXCMearnings in 1 session ndx100 |
78.56 | -0.01% | 0.08 | -6.2% | +5.6% | 63% | 3.2% | 315M | 64% 4w | -38.3% | 58% of 31 med +10% · CVaR -31% |
$1,092 16% | 0 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| FCX materials humanoid_materials |
65.95 | +1.21% | 0.14 | -5.4% | +1.7% | 67% | 3.9% | 819M | 71% 4w | -27.3% | 55% of 31 med +5% · CVaR -32% |
$909 13% | 3 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| TTWO ndx100 |
201.28 | -1.02% | 0.19 | -1.9% | -8.8% | 17% | 2.9% | 498M | 76% 4w | -25.0% | 50% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -15% |
$1,188 17% | 21 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| AMAT equipment ndx100ai_equipmentsoxx_top10 |
395.93 | +2.15% | 0.23 | -13.9% | -10.5% | 35% | 4.8% | 2.9B | 92% 4w | +1.6% | 68% of 31 med +14% · CVaR -17% |
$724 10% | — | neutral |
| MSTRearnings in 1 session ndx100 |
141.40 | +1.13% | 0.24 | -5.8% | +4.7% | 28% | 6.5% | 2.8B | 65% 4w | -40.8% | 50% of 32 med +3% · CVaR -42% |
$535 8% | — | neutral |
| TER equipment ndx100ai_equipment |
323.68 | +4.75% | 0.24 | -12.7% | -7.1% | 53% | 6.4% | 902M | 75% 4w | -19.2% | 61% of 28 med +9% · CVaR -30% |
$544 8% | — | neutral |
| ETNearnings in 4 sessions power ai_power |
384.20 | +3.30% | 0.25 | -6.1% | -2.7% | 48% | 4.0% | 774M | 99% 4w | +13.8% | 75% of 28 med +8% · CVaR -14% |
$876 13% | — | neutral |
| MPWRearnings in 1 session ndx100 |
1,211.89 | +3.82% | 0.27 | -7.1% | -7.4% | 43% | 4.9% | 851M | 97% 4w | +22.7% | 74% of 31 med +9% · CVaR -24% |
$717 10% | — | neutral |
| APHearnings today humanoid humanoid_association |
78.21 | +3.91% | 0.28 | -5.1% | +4.1% | 64% | 3.8% | 926M | 98% 4w | +14.3% | 72% of 29 med +7% · CVaR -16% |
$916 13% | — | neutral |
| VRTearnings today power ai_power |
208.56 | +4.39% | 0.29 | -7.7% | -22.6% | 26% | 5.6% | 1.1B | 80% 4w | -25.9% | 77% of 26 med +17% · CVaR -28% |
$626 9% | — | neutral |
| COHRearnings in 5 sessions equipment ai_equipment |
235.79 | +6.45% | 0.29 | -13.7% | -20.3% | 36% | 8.7% | 1.9B | 68% 4w | -43.5% | 52% of 29 med +4% · CVaR -26% |
$404 6% | — | neutral |
| STX memory ndx100ai_memory |
667.85 | +3.67% | 0.29 | -10.6% | -2.7% | 51% | 7.3% | 3.2B | 80% 4w | -13.2% | 70% of 30 med +12% · CVaR -21% |
$482 7% | — | neutral |
| BOTZ humanoid ETF humanoid_etf |
33.48 | +1.03% | 0.29 | -2.8% | -8.7% | 16% | 1.8% | 23M | 69% 4w | -28.2% | 55% of 29 med +4% · CVaR -21% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| ALNTearnings in 5 sessions humanoid humanoid_association |
94.04 | +4.36% | 0.29 | -8.5% | +14.6% | 65% | 6.0% | 21M | 70% 4w | -31.0% | 58% of 31 med +2% · CVaR -30% |
$581 8% | — | neutral |
| ASML equipment ndx100ai_equipment |
1,635.57 | +2.94% | 0.30 | -4.4% | +3.1% | 66% | 3.3% | 2.2B | 93% 4w | +5.5% | 78% of 32 med +10% · CVaR -18% |
$1,046 15% | — | neutral |
| NVDA compute ndx100ai_computesoxx_top10 |
217.94 | +0.90% | 0.32 | -2.9% | +7.0% | 71% | 2.7% | 23.4B | 95% 4w | +9.5% | 79% of 29 med +11% · CVaR -26% |
$1,285 18% | — | neutral |
| INTCearnings in 1 session ndx100soxx_top10 |
93.74 | +3.61% | 0.33 | -7.8% | +8.6% | 56% | 5.9% | 9.6B | 49% 4w | -37.8% | 56% of 32 med +2% · CVaR -24% |
$593 8% | — | neutral |
| ORCL platform ai_platform |
130.53 | +3.55% | 0.33 | -3.1% | -16.8% | 10% | 4.9% | 3.6B | 97% 4w | +13.5% | 60% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -23% |
$715 10% | — | neutral |
| QQQ index benchmark |
721.25 | +1.27% | 0.33 | -1.6% | +6.5% | 81% | 1.6% | 23.1B | 91% 4w | +0.6% | 74% of 27 med +7% · CVaR -11% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| SMCIearnings in 4 sessions compute ai_compute |
35.09 | +7.34% | 0.34 | -7.5% | +7.7% | 45% | 7.0% | 1.3B | 77% 4w | -40.1% | 55% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -34% |
$503 7% | — | neutral |
| SOXX semis ETF semis_etf |
511.06 | +3.91% | 0.34 | -4.5% | +8.0% | 63% | 3.7% | 4.0B | 95% 4w | +7.3% | 72% of 29 med +5% · CVaR -18% |
$952 14% | — | neutral |
| LITE network ndx100ai_network |
866.18 | +5.88% | 0.35 | -8.2% | +9.2% | 72% | 8.1% | 4.0B | 66% 4w | -46.0% | 62% of 32 med +7% · CVaR -28% |
$431 6% | — | neutral |
%B above 1.00 — the stall zone, −2.65 pts vs the null at 60 days. Not a short signal; a not-today signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXPIearnings reported last session humanoid ndx100humanoid_association |
253.50 | +3.12% | 1.06 | +7.5% | +3.6% | 49% | 3.4% | 721M | 72% 4w | -10.8% | 60% of 30 med +1% · CVaR -20% |
$1,028 15% | — | extended |
| CSX ndx100 |
52.27 | +1.87% | 1.08 | +8.0% | +15.7% | 96% | 2.0% | 463M | 90% 4w | -0.2% | 70% of 33 med +5% · CVaR -12% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | extended |
| EMRearnings in 5 sessions humanoid humanoid_association |
166.27 | +2.83% | 1.09 | +3.2% | +13.8% | 100% | 2.6% | 381M | 85% 4w | -3.4% | 65% of 31 med +4% · CVaR -13% |
$1,343 19% | — | extended |
| TELearnings today humanoid humanoid_association |
225.35 | +5.37% | 1.12 | +4.8% | +6.3% | 60% | 2.7% | 369M | 83% 4w | -7.9% | 66% of 32 med +5% · CVaR -20% |
$1,303 19% | 9 | extended SPIKE +5.4% · 2.2x |
| TSLA humanoid ndx100humanoid_oem |
407.46 | +4.04% | 1.16 | +8.9% | +5.6% | 57% | 3.4% | 11.9B | 74% 4w | -33.4% | 52% of 33 med +1% · CVaR -37% |
$1,040 15% | — | extended |
| TXN ndx100 |
308.91 | +3.62% | 1.18 | +7.9% | +20.4% | 88% | 3.1% | 1.5B | 88% 4w | -1.8% | 65% of 31 med +3% · CVaR -14% |
$1,116 16% | — | extended |
| BKR ndx100 |
59.00 | +5.34% | 1.20 | +5.4% | -1.5% | 60% | 3.0% | 380M | 67% 4w | -44.0% | 43% of 30 med -0% · CVaR -29% |
$1,160 17% | 6 | extended SPIKE +5.3% · 2.2x |
Buy the dip names at each quarter-end, hold to the next, versus the same number of names drawn at random from the same list (2000 draws), after 0.20% costs. Thresholds were written before each run. Neither variant cleared them, so nothing here changes the verdicts above. The universe is today's AI leaders, which flatters dip entries; the mean is carried by one quarter (2026-03-31) in v1.
| Test | signal qtrs | mean net excess | qtrs positive | ex best qtr | p vs random | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1 · dip (%B < 0.20) | 23 | +4.2 pts | 52% | +1.0 pts | 0.071 | not promoted (failed: P1, P4) |
| v2 · dip + above 200-day | 18 | +3.3 pts | 39% | -4.8 pts | 0.259 | not promoted (failed: P1, P3, P4, P5, P6) |
The 1–3 year durability gate cannot be tested point-in-time on 10 years of data (needs 2016 prior sessions); it is judged forward only. Method and thresholds: docs/experiments/2026-09-24-preregistration-qr-s1-v{1,2}.md.
Daily entries at the next open on the 34 AI stocks over 10 years, edge vs every session for the same names. The rule was fixed before this ran: the grid can only demote the default, never pick a different cell. Result: not demoted — it sits on a plateau. Deeper dips test a little better and every cell is positive, but the default edge is +1.31 pts over 10 years, well below the +3.47 pts measured on 2023+ alone.
| edge vs null, pts | 20d | 40d | 60d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| %B < 0.10 | +1.24 | +1.52 | +1.72 | +1.34 |
| %B < 0.15 | +1.13 | +1.35 | +1.52 | +1.09 |
| %B < 0.20 | +0.98 | +1.17 | +1.31 | +0.63 |
| %B < 0.25 | +0.85 | +1.05 | +1.28 | +0.57 |
| %B < 0.30 | +0.77 | +1.00 | +1.31 | +0.59 |
By year (default cell): 2016 +0.5% · 2017 +2.2% · 2018 +2.1% · 2019 +4.1% · 2020 +8.1% · 2021 +3.2% · 2022 +3.8% · 2023 +4.4% · 2024 +3.5% · 2025 -3.3% · 2026 +4.2%
By market: QQQ above 200 +0.72% · QQQ below 200 +2.16%
Same rule on indices since 1999 (no hand-picked names): QQQ +0.58% · SPY +0.85% · XLK +0.39% — positive on at least 2 of 3. Episodes are counted per name, and the names dip together, so the independent count is far lower than the raw one. Source: scripts/quarterly_rotation/robustness.py.