Ranked by %B ascending — which names are on sale — not by momentum. Measured on the AI complex over the 2023+ wave, forward 60 days: buying dips beat simply holding by +3.47 pts, while buying strength lost 2.65 pts and top-quartile 12-month momentum lost 3.01 pts. Owning the complex at all was worth +17.95%, which is roughly five times what the timing overlay adds. These are daily entries on the names as they stand today (in-sample, overlapping); the quarterly portfolio test further down did not confirm the dip rule.
Descriptive only. Nothing on this page was measured by regime, so it does not change a verdict. Broad risk-off = QQQ below its 200-day with VIX ≥ 25 or up 20% in 5 days; sector washout = SOXX below its 200-day or under 40% of the AI list above theirs.
Descriptive only; no verdict reads it. A theme leads for a few years and then hands over (the COVID winners kept dipping through late 2021 H2 and did not recover; a one-off analysis, not a committed result). "Breaking" = the theme's equal-weight basket is under its own 200-day while at least 40% of its names sit in the dip band at once; that threshold is a display choice, not a tested rule.
| Theme | Names | Basket vs 200d | Basket 20d | Names above 200d | In dip band | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI compute | 9 | +33.2% | +12.1% | 89% | 0/9 | leading |
| AI memory | 4 | +28.4% | -2.7% | 75% | 2/4 | leading |
| Chip equipment | 8 | +14.3% | +7.2% | 100% | 0/8 | leading |
| AI networking | 3 | +33.2% | +20.0% | 100% | 0/3 | leading |
| AI power | 5 | +5.0% | +2.4% | 80% | 0/5 | leading |
| AI platforms | 6 | +14.7% | +8.8% | 83% | 0/6 | leading |
| Humanoid supply chain | 16 (15 in basket) | +3.1% | +2.2% | 60% | 1/16 | leading |
| Magnets & materials | 4 | -16.2% | -7.2% | 25% | 2/4 | breaking |
%B says where price sits inside its normal trading channel. Below 0.20 means it has pulled back to the bottom of that channel — on sale. Above 1.00 is extended: too stretched to buy, and it returned 2.65 pts below simply holding.
Two studies disagree, so this is not a filter the verdict column applies. 46 large caps, 15y, fwd 60d: dips above the 200-day hit 71% vs 68% below — better odds, but below-200d averaged slightly more (+7.16% vs +6.96%). The AI complex, 2023+: dips below the 200-day were the best bucket of all, +7.49 pts vs the null. The Meta trade in the box below was 11.8% below its 200-day. Above = steadier; below = bigger and lumpier. Pick per your tolerance.
Both halves are gates, and 2y pos is often the binding one. p10 is the 10th-percentile outcome across past 2-year holds — your unlucky-but-realistic case; a −50% p10 means one in ten 2-year holds halved. These are the exact thresholds the verdict column applies, not a rule of thumb.
| %B < 0.20 dip rule | 2026-08-21 @ 549.47 | +35.4% | 18 days before the launch, and META was 11.8% below its 200-day |
| move + volume spike | 2026-09-09 @ 653.17 | +13.9% | the day after the launch |
| follow the analyst | 2026-09-21 @ 741.25 | +0.4% | the move was over |
The 3x pair moves with SOXX, so read SOXX's %B and size with SOXL/SOXS's ATR. SOXS is inverse: its %B means the opposite.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXX semis ETF semis_etf |
559.40 | -0.69% | 0.52 | +0.5% | +21.1% | 75% | 2.9% | 3.8B | 95% 4w | +7.4% | 73% of 30 med +6% · CVaR -18% |
$1,214 17% | — | neutral |
| SOXL semis ETF semis_etfleveraged |
139.76 | -1.94% | 0.49 | -0.4% | +16.2% | 40% | 8.7% | 7.8B | 76% 4w | -52.2% | 63% of 30 med +9% · CVaR -57% |
— | — | leveraged · not rated |
| SOXS semis ETF semis_etfleveragedinverse |
34.39 | +1.78% | 0.43 | -5.0% | -81.7% | 1% | 9.7% | 2.6B | 0% 4w | -98.7% | 17% of 36 med -21% · CVaR -65% |
— | — | leveraged · not rated |
The ten holdings behind SOXX, their fund weight, and how much of the day each one contributed (fund weight × its move, so together they explain about 61% of the fund).
| Ticker | Fund wt | 1d | Contrib | Trend | vs 20d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 9.43% | -0.52% | -0.049% | above 20d | |
| MU | 8.91% | -0.66% | -0.059% | BELOW 20d | |
| AMD | 8.23% | -2.03% | -0.167% | above 20d | |
| AVGO | 7.48% | +0.39% | +0.029% | above 20d | |
| INTC | 5.09% | -2.22% | -0.113% | BELOW 20d | |
| MRVL | 4.66% | +0.25% | +0.012% | above 20d | |
| TSM earnings in 3 sessions | 4.65% | -1.02% | -0.048% | above 20d | |
| AMAT | 4.59% | -0.50% | -0.023% | above 20d | |
| LRCX | 4.27% | -0.55% | -0.023% | above 20d | |
| KLAC | 4.12% | -0.58% | -0.024% | above 20d |
Breadth is context, not a trigger. Reproduce every number here with scripts/soxx_breadth_study.py (8 years of SOXX, entry at the next open). Broad strength has no edge: top-10 weight above its 20-day > 80% was +0.04 pts vs the null at 20 days (n=727; +0.00 at 5d, −0.03 at 1d). Weakness in the holdings (breadth < 20%, or their composite %B < 0.20) pointed the same way as SOXX's own dip signal but smaller (about +0.7 to +0.9 pts vs +1.3) and rests on a few hundred overlapping observations, so treat it as noise-level: it adds nothing you cannot read off SOXX's own %B. Use this table to see why SOXX moved, broad or one name, and take the direction call from SOXX's %B. SOXL and SOXS are daily-reset products and are not rated on this page.
META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX — tracked every day whether or not they signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
718.67 | -0.31% | 0.50 | -0.1% | +14.2% | 77% | 3.1% | 9.8B | 79% 4w | -28.0% | 57% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -25% |
$1,138 16% | — | neutral |
| GOOGL platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
351.66 | +0.97% | 0.82 | +1.7% | +3.5% | 70% | 2.4% | 8.2B | 90% 4w | +0.0% | 71% of 31 med +5% · CVaR -9% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| MSFT platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
535.07 | +2.38% | 0.98 | +4.9% | +23.7% | 99% | 2.2% | 10.9B | 96% 4w | +10.0% | 70% of 27 med +7% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AAPL megacap ndx100megacap |
336.64 | -1.11% | 0.59 | +0.4% | +15.9% | 95% | 2.0% | 12.7B | 99% 4w | +16.3% | 70% of 27 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AMZN megacap ndx100megacap |
262.43 | +3.29% | 1.08 | +4.1% | +8.4% | 75% | 2.2% | 8.6B | 79% 4w | -25.3% | 73% of 30 med +6% · CVaR -22% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | extended |
| NFLX megacap ndx100megacap |
70.30 | -1.77% | 0.40 | -1.9% | -15.8% | 6% | 2.6% | 2.4B | 77% 4w | -39.1% | 74% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -37% |
$1,330 19% | — | neutral |
Any symbol, priced now. The browser cannot call Yahoo directly (no CORS), so this
goes through this site's own /api/quote and then applies the same formulas as the
nightly table, ported from the Python — so a live check and the tables cannot disagree.
Cached 10 minutes.
%B below 0.2, liquid, and passes the 1–3 year hold gate (≥80% of rolling 2-year windows positive with a 10th percentile above -10%).
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS ndx100 |
148.58 | -13.27% | -0.15 | -10.9% | -21.2% | 0% | 3.7% | 758M | 94% 4w | +8.1% | 67% of 33 med +7% · CVaR -14% |
$938 13% | 30 | BUY ZONE SPIKE -13.3% · 3.7x |
| ROST ndx100 |
222.41 | -1.24% | 0.08 | -3.3% | +1.9% | 70% | 2.3% | 504M | 80% 4w | -7.0% | 64% of 28 med +6% · CVaR -20% |
$1,400 20% cap | 1 | BUY ZONE |
A move of 5%+ on 2×+ the 20-day average volume. This is a reaction, not a setup — something happened, and the rule does not know what or which direction it resolves.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS ndx100 |
148.58 | -13.27% | -0.15 | -10.9% | -21.2% | 0% | 3.7% | 758M | 94% 4w | +8.1% | 67% of 33 med +7% · CVaR -14% |
$938 13% | 30 | BUY ZONE SPIKE -13.3% · 3.7x |
Dips that fail the hold gate, plus names with no measured edge either way.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX ndx100 |
90.75 | -2.64% | -0.13 | -4.5% | -7.5% | 45% | 2.7% | 657M | 75% 4w | -8.5% | 47% of 30 med -1% · CVaR -18% |
$1,276 18% | 2 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| ALB materials humanoid_materials |
101.27 | -0.81% | 0.10 | -6.8% | -34.1% | 11% | 3.9% | 263M | 49% 4w | -62.1% | 56% of 32 med +2% · CVaR -27% |
$887 13% | 1 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| WDC memory ndx100ai_memory |
397.28 | +1.01% | 0.10 | -8.7% | -2.1% | 45% | 6.7% | 3.2B | 53% 4w | -43.5% | 47% of 30 med -2% · CVaR -28% |
$523 7% | 7 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| DXCM ndx100 |
84.11 | -0.36% | 0.15 | -2.8% | +14.4% | 78% | 2.7% | 311M | 64% 4w | -38.3% | 58% of 31 med +10% · CVaR -27% |
$1,305 19% | 0 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| QCOM ndx100 |
175.50 | -0.29% | 0.16 | -5.6% | +4.5% | 42% | 4.2% | 1.8B | 75% 4w | -13.6% | 52% of 29 med +0% · CVaR -22% |
$838 12% | 4 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| CMCSA ndx100 |
20.66 | -2.59% | 0.18 | -5.9% | -19.8% | 0% | 2.9% | 656M | 56% 4w | -27.1% | 47% of 32 med -0% · CVaR -19% |
$1,213 17% | 3 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| STX memory ndx100ai_memory |
783.00 | +1.05% | 0.18 | -8.8% | +18.1% | 65% | 6.7% | 3.7B | 80% 4w | -12.9% | 68% of 31 med +12% · CVaR -24% |
$523 7% | 1 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| KHC ndx100 |
22.27 | -0.93% | 0.22 | -4.7% | -4.1% | 26% | 2.6% | 357M | 37% 4w | -58.1% | 40% of 35 med -1% · CVaR -17% |
$1,344 19% | — | neutral |
| PCAR ndx100 |
108.04 | -1.48% | 0.23 | -4.2% | -10.1% | 37% | 2.5% | 355M | 98% 4w | +8.1% | 61% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| INTC ndx100soxx_top10 |
104.70 | -2.22% | 0.24 | -8.0% | +26.1% | 66% | 5.6% | 10.3B | 49% 4w | -37.7% | 58% of 33 med +3% · CVaR -24% |
$621 9% | — | neutral |
| WDAY ndx100 |
186.59 | -0.65% | 0.27 | -1.6% | +19.2% | 56% | 3.8% | 568M | 67% 4w | -28.7% | 70% of 33 med +8% · CVaR -34% |
$917 13% | — | neutral |
| PEP ndx100 |
125.97 | -1.85% | 0.27 | -2.4% | -12.6% | 5% | 2.0% | 1.0B | 78% 4w | -11.4% | 58% of 31 med +2% · CVaR -8% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| NXPI humanoid ndx100humanoid_association |
227.52 | -1.54% | 0.28 | -2.6% | -6.8% | 31% | 3.5% | 738M | 72% 4w | -11.3% | 57% of 30 med +1% · CVaR -20% |
$1,013 14% | — | neutral |
| TTD ndx100 |
12.08 | -2.11% | 0.30 | -6.6% | -45.0% | 0% | 4.2% | 272M | 69% 4w | -48.0% | 57% of 30 med +11% · CVaR -40% |
$833 12% | — | neutral |
| REGN ndx100 |
746.54 | +0.94% | 0.31 | -2.6% | +1.7% | 64% | 2.7% | 503M | 63% 4w | -31.3% | 48% of 29 med -0% · CVaR -25% |
$1,280 18% | — | neutral |
| CPRT ndx100 |
27.32 | -0.58% | 0.33 | -3.6% | -17.7% | 4% | 3.1% | 279M | 86% 4w | -18.4% | 62% of 32 med +8% · CVaR -17% |
$1,137 16% | — | neutral |
| VRT power ai_power |
242.78 | -0.39% | 0.34 | -1.4% | -9.0% | 41% | 4.7% | 1.1B | 80% 4w | -26.0% | 77% of 26 med +17% · CVaR -28% |
$750 11% | — | neutral |
| AXON ndx100 |
422.89 | +1.34% | 0.35 | -3.0% | -14.2% | 19% | 4.7% | 429M | 98% 4w | +20.8% | 59% of 32 med +20% · CVaR -28% |
$750 11% | — | neutral |
| ALNY ndx100 |
232.68 | +3.63% | 0.35 | -2.9% | -22.1% | 10% | 4.3% | 367M | 79% 4w | -8.6% | 53% of 32 med +4% · CVaR -23% |
$814 12% | — | neutral |
| BKNG ndx100 |
160.34 | +0.23% | 0.37 | -1.8% | -11.1% | 11% | 3.4% | 1.1B | 84% 4w | -4.9% | 75% of 32 med +4% · CVaR -19% |
$1,027 15% | — | neutral |
| HON ndx100 |
207.73 | +0.55% | 0.37 | -0.9% | -9.3% | 21% | 2.0% | 587M | 88% 4w | -2.2% | 57% of 30 med +2% · CVaR -12% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| VRTX ndx100 |
510.08 | +1.36% | 0.39 | -0.7% | +7.4% | 68% | 2.3% | 542M | 92% 4w | +1.7% | 60% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -12% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| NFLX megacap ndx100megacap |
70.30 | -1.77% | 0.40 | -1.9% | -15.8% | 6% | 2.6% | 2.4B | 77% 4w | -39.1% | 74% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -37% |
$1,330 19% | — | neutral |
| PAYX ndx100 |
103.98 | -0.46% | 0.42 | -2.4% | +1.9% | 47% | 2.6% | 321M | 87% 4w | -3.1% | 66% of 32 med +5% · CVaR -17% |
$1,338 19% | — | neutral |
| MU memory ndx100ai_memorysoxx_top10 |
1,029.00 | -0.66% | 0.46 | -0.9% | +46.7% | 82% | 4.5% | 27.2B | 80% 4w | -13.5% | 60% of 30 med +7% · CVaR -19% |
$784 11% | — | neutral |
%B above 1.00 — the stall zone, −2.65 pts vs the null at 60 days. Not a short signal; a not-today signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN network ai_network |
449.77 | +5.60% | 1.00 | +20.4% | +13.4% | 62% | 5.5% | 823M | 76% 4w | -15.6% | 60% of 30 med +5% · CVaR -20% |
$637 9% | — | extended |
| CSCO ndx100 |
118.39 | +3.05% | 1.01 | +7.5% | +20.9% | 83% | 2.4% | 1.9B | 82% 4w | -3.2% | 66% of 29 med +5% · CVaR -14% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | extended |
| AMZN megacap ndx100megacap |
262.43 | +3.29% | 1.08 | +4.1% | +8.4% | 75% | 2.2% | 8.6B | 79% 4w | -25.3% | 73% of 30 med +6% · CVaR -22% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | extended |
| PDD ndx100 |
81.35 | +3.95% | 1.10 | +3.8% | -13.2% | 12% | 2.3% | 492M | 63% 4w | -43.2% | 54% of 24 med +5% · CVaR -35% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | extended |
| ZS ndx100 |
233.73 | +7.80% | 1.20 | +14.5% | +40.8% | 53% | 4.2% | 423M | 67% 4w | -36.4% | 58% of 26 med +9% · CVaR -41% |
$831 12% | — | extended |
Buy the dip names at each quarter-end, hold to the next, versus the same number of names drawn at random from the same list (2000 draws), after 0.20% costs. Thresholds were written before each run. Neither variant cleared them, so nothing here changes the verdicts above. The universe is today's AI leaders, which flatters dip entries; the mean is carried by one quarter (2026-03-31) in v1.
| Test | signal qtrs | mean net excess | qtrs positive | ex best qtr | p vs random | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1 · dip (%B < 0.20) | 23 | +4.2 pts | 52% | +1.0 pts | 0.071 | not promoted (failed: P1, P4) |
| v2 · dip + above 200-day | 18 | +3.3 pts | 39% | -4.8 pts | 0.259 | not promoted (failed: P1, P3, P4, P5, P6) |
The 1–3 year durability gate cannot be tested point-in-time on 10 years of data (needs 2016 prior sessions); it is judged forward only. Method and thresholds: docs/experiments/2026-09-24-preregistration-qr-s1-v{1,2}.md.
Daily entries at the next open on the 34 AI stocks over 10 years, edge vs every session for the same names. The rule was fixed before this ran: the grid can only demote the default, never pick a different cell. Result: not demoted — it sits on a plateau. Deeper dips test a little better and every cell is positive, but the default edge is +1.31 pts over 10 years, well below the +3.47 pts measured on 2023+ alone.
| edge vs null, pts | 20d | 40d | 60d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| %B < 0.10 | +1.24 | +1.52 | +1.72 | +1.34 |
| %B < 0.15 | +1.13 | +1.35 | +1.52 | +1.09 |
| %B < 0.20 | +0.98 | +1.17 | +1.31 | +0.63 |
| %B < 0.25 | +0.85 | +1.05 | +1.28 | +0.57 |
| %B < 0.30 | +0.77 | +1.00 | +1.31 | +0.59 |
By year (default cell): 2016 +0.5% · 2017 +2.2% · 2018 +2.1% · 2019 +4.1% · 2020 +8.1% · 2021 +3.2% · 2022 +3.8% · 2023 +4.4% · 2024 +3.5% · 2025 -3.3% · 2026 +4.2%
By market: QQQ above 200 +0.72% · QQQ below 200 +2.16%
Same rule on indices since 1999 (no hand-picked names): QQQ +0.58% · SPY +0.85% · XLK +0.39% — positive on at least 2 of 3. Episodes are counted per name, and the names dip together, so the independent count is far lower than the raw one. Source: scripts/quarterly_rotation/robustness.py.