Ranked by %B ascending — which names are on sale — not by momentum. Measured on the AI complex over the 2023+ wave, forward 60 days: buying dips beat simply holding by +3.47 pts, while buying strength lost 2.65 pts and top-quartile 12-month momentum lost 3.01 pts. Owning the complex at all was worth +17.95%, which is roughly five times what the timing overlay adds. These are daily entries on the names as they stand today (in-sample, overlapping); the quarterly portfolio test further down did not confirm the dip rule.
Descriptive only. Nothing on this page was measured by regime, so it does not change a verdict. Broad risk-off = QQQ below its 200-day with VIX ≥ 25 or up 20% in 5 days; sector washout = SOXX below its 200-day or under 40% of the AI list above theirs.
Descriptive only; no verdict reads it. A theme leads for a few years and then hands over (the COVID winners kept dipping through late 2021 H2 and did not recover; a one-off analysis, not a committed result). "Breaking" = the theme's equal-weight basket is under its own 200-day while at least 40% of its names sit in the dip band at once; that threshold is a display choice, not a tested rule.
| Theme | Names | Basket vs 200d | Basket 20d | Names above 200d | In dip band | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI compute | 9 | +44.0% | +20.7% | 100% | 0/9 | leading |
| AI memory | 4 | +35.4% | -4.8% | 100% | 2/4 | leading |
| Chip equipment | 8 | +20.9% | +10.4% | 100% | 0/8 | leading |
| AI networking | 3 | +36.4% | +18.5% | 100% | 0/3 | leading |
| AI power | 5 | +8.2% | +1.3% | 80% | 0/5 | leading |
| AI platforms | 6 | +13.0% | +6.7% | 83% | 0/6 | leading |
| Humanoid supply chain | 16 (15 in basket) | +7.5% | +7.8% | 73% | 0/16 | leading |
| Magnets & materials | 4 | -14.4% | -13.2% | 25% | 1/4 | weak |
%B says where price sits inside its normal trading channel. Below 0.20 means it has pulled back to the bottom of that channel — on sale. Above 1.00 is extended: too stretched to buy, and it returned 2.65 pts below simply holding.
Two studies disagree, so this is not a filter the verdict column applies. 46 large caps, 15y, fwd 60d: dips above the 200-day hit 71% vs 68% below — better odds, but below-200d averaged slightly more (+7.16% vs +6.96%). The AI complex, 2023+: dips below the 200-day were the best bucket of all, +7.49 pts vs the null. The Meta trade in the box below was 11.8% below its 200-day. Above = steadier; below = bigger and lumpier. Pick per your tolerance.
Both halves are gates, and 2y pos is often the binding one. p10 is the 10th-percentile outcome across past 2-year holds — your unlucky-but-realistic case; a −50% p10 means one in ten 2-year holds halved. These are the exact thresholds the verdict column applies, not a rule of thumb.
| %B < 0.20 dip rule | 2026-08-21 @ 549.47 | +35.4% | 18 days before the launch, and META was 11.8% below its 200-day |
| move + volume spike | 2026-09-09 @ 653.17 | +13.9% | the day after the launch |
| follow the analyst | 2026-09-21 @ 741.25 | +0.4% | the move was over |
The 3x pair moves with SOXX, so read SOXX's %B and size with SOXL/SOXS's ATR. SOXS is inverse: its %B means the opposite.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXX semis ETF semis_etf |
589.45 | -0.01% | 0.82 | +7.1% | +28.8% | 83% | 2.6% | 4.0B | 95% 4w | +7.3% | 73% of 30 med +6% · CVaR -18% |
$1,333 19% | — | neutral |
| SOXL semis ETF semis_etfleveraged |
164.26 | -0.01% | 0.84 | +20.4% | +38.4% | 49% | 7.0% | 7.8B | 76% 4w | -52.2% | 63% of 30 med +9% · CVaR -57% |
— | — | leveraged · not rated |
| SOXS semis ETF semis_etfleveragedinverse |
29.63 | +0.03% | 0.22 | -21.8% | -84.9% | 0% | 11.4% | 2.6B | 0% 4w | -98.7% | 17% of 36 med -21% · CVaR -65% |
— | — | leveraged · not rated |
The ten holdings behind SOXX, their fund weight, and how much of the day each one contributed (fund weight × its move, so together they explain about 61% of the fund).
| Ticker | Fund wt | 1d | Contrib | Trend | vs 20d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 9.43% | +0.14% | +0.013% | above 20d | |
| MU | 8.91% | -1.73% | -0.154% | above 20d | |
| AMD | 8.23% | +2.80% | +0.230% | above 20d | |
| AVGO | 7.48% | +3.67% | +0.274% | above 20d | |
| INTC | 5.09% | -3.18% | -0.162% | BELOW 20d | |
| MRVL | 4.66% | +5.81% | +0.271% | above 20d | |
| TSM | 4.65% | -0.72% | -0.034% | above 20d | |
| AMAT | 4.59% | -2.21% | -0.102% | above 20d | |
| LRCX | 4.27% | -3.44% | -0.147% | above 20d | |
| KLAC | 4.12% | -4.54% | -0.187% | above 20d |
Breadth is context, not a trigger. Reproduce every number here with scripts/soxx_breadth_study.py (8 years of SOXX, entry at the next open). Broad strength has no edge: top-10 weight above its 20-day > 80% was +0.04 pts vs the null at 20 days (n=727; +0.00 at 5d, −0.03 at 1d). Weakness in the holdings (breadth < 20%, or their composite %B < 0.20) pointed the same way as SOXX's own dip signal but smaller (about +0.7 to +0.9 pts vs +1.3) and rests on a few hundred overlapping observations, so treat it as noise-level: it adds nothing you cannot read off SOXX's own %B. Use this table to see why SOXX moved, broad or one name, and take the direction call from SOXX's %B. SOXL and SOXS are daily-reset products and are not rated on this page.
META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX — tracked every day whether or not they signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
738.88 | -0.41% | 0.69 | +4.3% | +17.6% | 85% | 3.2% | 10.2B | 79% 4w | -28.1% | 57% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -25% |
$1,077 15% | — | neutral |
| GOOGL platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
347.68 | +0.35% | 0.68 | +1.2% | +2.6% | 67% | 2.4% | 8.5B | 90% 4w | -0.1% | 71% of 31 med +5% · CVaR -9% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| MSFT platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
529.30 | +0.78% | 1.06 | +4.9% | +22.5% | 96% | 2.2% | 11.2B | 96% 4w | +10.0% | 70% of 27 med +7% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | extended |
| AAPL megacap ndx100megacap |
333.63 | +0.22% | 0.51 | +0.1% | +15.3% | 92% | 2.0% | 12.7B | 99% 4w | +16.2% | 70% of 27 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AMZN megacap ndx100megacap |
256.29 | +1.95% | 0.86 | +2.0% | +6.0% | 67% | 2.2% | 8.6B | 79% 4w | -25.5% | 73% of 30 med +6% · CVaR -22% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| NFLX megacap ndx100megacap |
68.69 | +1.76% | 0.24 | -5.3% | -18.0% | 3% | 2.7% | 2.4B | 77% 4w | -39.2% | 74% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -37% |
$1,283 18% | — | neutral |
Any symbol, priced now. The browser cannot call Yahoo directly (no CORS), so this
goes through this site's own /api/quote and then applies the same formulas as the
nightly table, ported from the Python — so a live check and the tables cannot disagree.
Cached 10 minutes.
%B below 0.2, liquid, and passes the 1–3 year hold gate (≥80% of rolling 2-year windows positive with a 10th percentile above -10%).
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRTX ndx100 |
502.31 | -0.24% | 0.06 | -2.5% | +5.9% | 64% | 2.3% | 542M | 92% 4w | +1.7% | 60% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -12% |
$1,400 20% cap | 0 | BUY ZONE |
| ROST ndx100 |
224.21 | -0.95% | 0.13 | -2.6% | +3.1% | 72% | 2.3% | 504M | 80% 4w | -7.0% | 64% of 28 med +6% · CVaR -20% |
$1,400 20% cap | 0 | BUY ZONE |
| BKNG ndx100 |
157.63 | -0.44% | 0.18 | -4.8% | -13.0% | 7% | 3.7% | 1.1B | 84% 4w | -5.0% | 75% of 32 med +4% · CVaR -19% |
$939 13% | 1 | BUY ZONE |
A move of 5%+ on 2×+ the 20-day average volume. This is a reaction, not a setup — something happened, and the rule does not know what or which direction it resolves.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL compute ndx100ai_computesoxx_top10 |
287.01 | +5.81% | 0.98 | +14.1% | +70.0% | 88% | 5.0% | 4.6B | 86% 4w | -7.7% | 59% of 32 med +5% · CVaR -31% |
$697 10% | 30 | neutral SPIKE +5.8% · 3.0x |
| CEG power ndx100ai_power |
300.40 | +12.25% | 1.15 | +12.4% | +4.9% | 39% | 4.3% | 714M | — | — | 79% of 14 med +12% · CVaR -16% |
$806 12% | 19 | dip · unmeasured SPIKE +12.2% · 4.4x |
| CIEN network ai_network |
443.65 | +13.85% | 1.31 | +23.7% | +12.8% | 61% | 5.4% | 787M | 76% 4w | -15.6% | 60% of 30 med +5% · CVaR -20% |
$646 9% | 9 | extended SPIKE +13.8% · 2.5x |
Dips that fail the hold gate, plus names with no measured edge either way.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KHC ndx100 |
22.03 | +0.87% | 0.05 | -7.1% | -5.2% | 23% | 2.7% | 357M | 37% 4w | -58.1% | 40% of 35 med -1% · CVaR -17% |
$1,312 19% | 8 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| ALNY ndx100 |
223.94 | +1.84% | 0.07 | -8.0% | -25.6% | 6% | 4.6% | 367M | 79% 4w | -8.6% | 53% of 32 med +4% · CVaR -23% |
$757 11% | 1 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| DXCM ndx100 |
83.39 | -4.04% | 0.08 | -3.5% | +13.9% | 76% | 2.7% | 315M | 64% 4w | -38.3% | 58% of 31 med +10% · CVaR -27% |
$1,273 18% | 0 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| WDC memory ndx100ai_memory |
411.04 | -6.93% | 0.08 | -7.6% | +2.1% | 47% | 7.2% | 3.2B | 53% 4w | -43.6% | 48% of 29 med -2% · CVaR -28% |
$486 7% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| REGN ndx100 |
738.72 | +1.69% | 0.15 | -4.6% | +0.6% | 62% | 2.8% | 503M | 63% 4w | -31.3% | 48% of 29 med -0% · CVaR -25% |
$1,254 18% | 0 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| CPRT ndx100 |
26.82 | -3.00% | 0.18 | -7.2% | -19.6% | 0% | 3.2% | 282M | 86% 4w | -18.0% | 62% of 32 med +8% · CVaR -17% |
$1,087 16% | 0 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| PEPearnings in 1 session ndx100 |
125.71 | +0.05% | 0.19 | -3.8% | -12.9% | 0% | 1.8% | 1.0B | 78% 4w | -11.3% | 58% of 31 med +2% · CVaR -8% |
$1,400 20% cap | 17 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| GILD ndx100 |
144.23 | -0.28% | 0.19 | -2.6% | +6.5% | 79% | 2.3% | 790M | 77% 4w | -8.7% | 72% of 32 med +3% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | 1 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| TTD ndx100 |
11.92 | -0.50% | 0.19 | -9.8% | -46.7% | 0% | 4.5% | 272M | 70% 4w | -47.7% | 57% of 30 med +11% · CVaR -40% |
$785 11% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| STX memory ndx100ai_memory |
805.63 | -9.18% | 0.20 | -7.3% | +22.9% | 67% | 7.2% | 3.8B | 80% 4w | -13.2% | 68% of 31 med +12% · CVaR -24% |
$486 7% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| VRSK ndx100 |
165.20 | +1.18% | 0.21 | -4.1% | -12.4% | 11% | 3.1% | 230M | 83% 4w | -10.0% | 58% of 31 med +2% · CVaR -15% |
$1,135 16% | — | neutral |
| PCAR ndx100 |
109.32 | -0.04% | 0.22 | -4.9% | -9.1% | 39% | 2.3% | 348M | 98% 4w | +8.1% | 61% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AXON ndx100 |
418.62 | +1.65% | 0.23 | -6.1% | -15.5% | 18% | 5.0% | 421M | 98% 4w | +20.8% | 59% of 32 med +20% · CVaR -28% |
$698 10% | — | neutral |
| NFLX megacap ndx100megacap |
68.69 | +1.76% | 0.24 | -5.3% | -18.0% | 3% | 2.7% | 2.4B | 77% 4w | -39.2% | 74% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -37% |
$1,283 18% | — | neutral |
| CMCSA ndx100 |
21.56 | -0.05% | 0.25 | -5.7% | -17.9% | 0% | 2.8% | 655M | 56% 4w | -27.0% | 47% of 32 med -0% · CVaR -19% |
$1,245 18% | — | neutral |
| TTWO ndx100 |
202.53 | -0.46% | 0.27 | -2.6% | -9.7% | 18% | 3.0% | 492M | 76% 4w | -25.0% | 50% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -15% |
$1,168 17% | — | neutral |
| PAYX ndx100 |
101.02 | +1.24% | 0.27 | -6.7% | -1.1% | 40% | 2.8% | 321M | 88% 4w | -3.0% | 66% of 32 med +5% · CVaR -17% |
$1,234 18% | — | neutral |
| ALB materials humanoid_materials |
106.35 | +1.90% | 0.27 | -4.7% | -31.0% | 15% | 4.0% | 265M | 49% 4w | -62.4% | 56% of 32 med +2% · CVaR -27% |
$869 12% | — | neutral |
| WDAY ndx100 |
186.55 | -1.28% | 0.28 | -1.6% | +18.8% | 56% | 4.0% | 572M | 67% 4w | -28.7% | 70% of 33 med +8% · CVaR -34% |
$867 12% | — | neutral |
| CSGP ndx100 |
27.63 | -0.11% | 0.29 | -3.9% | -30.4% | 1% | 3.8% | 182M | 62% 4w | -23.0% | 58% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -24% |
$927 13% | — | neutral |
| FANG ndx100 |
184.98 | +0.49% | 0.30 | -3.7% | +0.8% | 66% | 2.7% | 382M | 68% 4w | -49.1% | 50% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -34% |
$1,294 18% | — | neutral |
| ADBE ndx100 |
238.12 | -0.28% | 0.31 | -2.7% | -8.0% | 27% | 3.6% | 1.2B | 63% 4w | -43.9% | 45% of 29 med -2% · CVaR -23% |
$974 14% | — | neutral |
| CDW ndx100 |
135.67 | +1.31% | 0.32 | -4.2% | +4.0% | 65% | 4.2% | 221M | 79% 4w | -31.3% | 69% of 32 med +7% · CVaR -17% |
$838 12% | — | neutral |
| QCOM ndx100 |
181.03 | +0.13% | 0.32 | -2.8% | +7.8% | 46% | 4.3% | 1.8B | 75% 4w | -13.6% | 52% of 29 med +0% · CVaR -22% |
$812 12% | — | neutral |
| CTAS ndx100 |
195.96 | +0.29% | 0.33 | -0.9% | +4.5% | 62% | 2.0% | 389M | 98% 4w | +21.8% | 67% of 30 med +9% · CVaR -15% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
%B above 1.00 — the stall zone, −2.65 pts vs the null at 60 days. Not a short signal; a not-today signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXN ndx100 |
297.23 | +0.79% | 1.01 | +8.6% | +19.7% | 81% | 2.6% | 1.5B | 88% 4w | -1.8% | 66% of 32 med +4% · CVaR -14% |
$1,337 19% | — | extended |
| SPY index benchmark |
779.09 | +0.55% | 1.01 | +1.8% | +8.5% | 100% | 0.9% | 33.0B | 98% 4w | +5.4% | 74% of 27 med +5% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | extended |
| ON humanoid ndx100humanoid_association |
86.31 | +0.44% | 1.01 | +14.9% | +6.9% | 47% | 3.9% | 748M | 74% 4w | -38.7% | 59% of 32 med +5% · CVaR -30% |
$889 13% | — | extended |
| VTI index benchmark |
382.54 | +0.51% | 1.02 | +1.7% | +8.1% | 99% | 0.9% | 1.1B | 93% 4w | +1.4% | 80% of 30 med +6% · CVaR -12% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | extended |
| ANET network ai_network |
215.36 | +4.09% | 1.02 | +6.9% | +34.8% | 100% | 3.2% | 1.0B | 86% 4w | -12.2% | 77% of 31 med +18% · CVaR -17% |
$1,098 16% | — | extended |
| SNPS ndx100 |
505.17 | +3.42% | 1.02 | +20.3% | +13.4% | 82% | 3.9% | 670M | 88% 4w | -8.7% | 74% of 31 med +8% · CVaR -22% |
$899 13% | — | extended |
| ADSK ndx100 |
231.28 | +4.39% | 1.02 | +7.2% | -2.9% | 32% | 3.7% | 447M | 74% 4w | -26.7% | 55% of 31 med +3% · CVaR -21% |
$947 14% | — | extended |
| COST ndx100 |
935.68 | +1.32% | 1.04 | +2.9% | -2.5% | 36% | 1.7% | 1.9B | 100% 4w | +26.7% | 60% of 30 med +7% · CVaR -9% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | extended |
| SHOP ndx100 |
164.44 | +2.70% | 1.04 | +16.9% | +26.9% | 83% | 4.1% | 1.0B | 77% 4w | -61.5% | 69% of 29 med +13% · CVaR -38% |
$851 12% | — | extended |
| MSFT platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
529.30 | +0.78% | 1.06 | +4.9% | +22.5% | 96% | 2.2% | 11.2B | 96% 4w | +10.0% | 70% of 27 med +7% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | extended |
| LITE network ndx100ai_network |
1,133.40 | +3.82% | 1.07 | +18.1% | +50.4% | 100% | 5.7% | 3.7B | 66% 4w | -46.0% | 64% of 33 med +6% · CVaR -24% |
$616 9% | — | extended |
| AVGO compute ndx100ai_computesoxx_top10 |
375.81 | +3.67% | 1.08 | +6.0% | +2.5% | 44% | 3.0% | 7.8B | 100% 4w | +27.3% | 69% of 29 med +8% · CVaR -15% |
$1,168 17% | — | extended |
| RRX humanoid humanoid_disclosed |
166.36 | +3.16% | 1.08 | +7.4% | -11.6% | 35% | 3.5% | 187M | 79% 4w | -7.1% | 48% of 31 med -0% · CVaR -27% |
$991 14% | — | extended |
| LIN ndx100 |
489.95 | +1.57% | 1.16 | +4.5% | +1.2% | 66% | 1.7% | 949M | 100% 4w | +17.6% | 74% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -8% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | extended |
| PWR power ai_power |
719.56 | +5.29% | 1.24 | +11.6% | +18.3% | 82% | 3.2% | 592M | 93% 4w | +4.6% | 73% of 30 med +7% · CVaR -12% |
$1,100 16% | — | extended |
Buy the dip names at each quarter-end, hold to the next, versus the same number of names drawn at random from the same list (2000 draws), after 0.20% costs. Thresholds were written before each run. Neither variant cleared them, so nothing here changes the verdicts above. The universe is today's AI leaders, which flatters dip entries; the mean is carried by one quarter (2026-03-31) in v1.
| Test | signal qtrs | mean net excess | qtrs positive | ex best qtr | p vs random | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1 · dip (%B < 0.20) | 23 | +4.2 pts | 52% | +1.0 pts | 0.071 | not promoted (failed: P1, P4) |
| v2 · dip + above 200-day | 18 | +3.3 pts | 39% | -4.8 pts | 0.259 | not promoted (failed: P1, P3, P4, P5, P6) |
The 1–3 year durability gate cannot be tested point-in-time on 10 years of data (needs 2016 prior sessions); it is judged forward only. Method and thresholds: docs/experiments/2026-09-24-preregistration-qr-s1-v{1,2}.md.
Daily entries at the next open on the 34 AI stocks over 10 years, edge vs every session for the same names. The rule was fixed before this ran: the grid can only demote the default, never pick a different cell. Result: not demoted — it sits on a plateau. Deeper dips test a little better and every cell is positive, but the default edge is +1.31 pts over 10 years, well below the +3.47 pts measured on 2023+ alone.
| edge vs null, pts | 20d | 40d | 60d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| %B < 0.10 | +1.24 | +1.52 | +1.72 | +1.34 |
| %B < 0.15 | +1.13 | +1.35 | +1.52 | +1.09 |
| %B < 0.20 | +0.98 | +1.17 | +1.31 | +0.63 |
| %B < 0.25 | +0.85 | +1.05 | +1.28 | +0.57 |
| %B < 0.30 | +0.77 | +1.00 | +1.31 | +0.59 |
By year (default cell): 2016 +0.5% · 2017 +2.2% · 2018 +2.1% · 2019 +4.1% · 2020 +8.1% · 2021 +3.2% · 2022 +3.8% · 2023 +4.4% · 2024 +3.5% · 2025 -3.3% · 2026 +4.2%
By market: QQQ above 200 +0.72% · QQQ below 200 +2.16%
Same rule on indices since 1999 (no hand-picked names): QQQ +0.58% · SPY +0.85% · XLK +0.39% — positive on at least 2 of 3. Episodes are counted per name, and the names dip together, so the independent count is far lower than the raw one. Source: scripts/quarterly_rotation/robustness.py.