Ranked by %B ascending — which names are on sale — not by momentum. Measured on the AI complex over the 2023+ wave, forward 60 days: buying dips beat simply holding by +3.47 pts, while buying strength lost 2.65 pts and top-quartile 12-month momentum lost 3.01 pts. Owning the complex at all was worth +17.95%, which is roughly five times what the timing overlay adds. These are daily entries on the names as they stand today (in-sample, overlapping); the quarterly portfolio test further down did not confirm the dip rule.
Descriptive only. Nothing on this page was measured by regime, so it does not change a verdict. Broad risk-off = QQQ below its 200-day with VIX ≥ 25 or up 20% in 5 days; sector washout = SOXX below its 200-day or under 40% of the AI list above theirs.
Descriptive only; no verdict reads it. A theme leads for a few years and then hands over (the COVID winners kept dipping through late 2021 H2 and did not recover; a one-off analysis, not a committed result). "Breaking" = the theme's equal-weight basket is under its own 200-day while at least 40% of its names sit in the dip band at once; that threshold is a display choice, not a tested rule.
| Theme | Names | Basket vs 200d | Basket 20d | Names above 200d | In dip band | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI compute | 9 | +36.8% | +17.9% | 89% | 0/9 | leading |
| AI memory | 4 | +46.5% | +11.6% | 100% | 0/4 | leading |
| Chip equipment | 8 | +15.9% | +14.5% | 100% | 0/8 | leading |
| AI networking | 3 | +17.0% | +7.1% | 67% | 0/3 | leading |
| AI power | 5 | +0.2% | +1.3% | 60% | 0/5 | leading |
| AI platforms | 6 | +10.3% | +4.3% | 83% | 0/6 | leading |
| Humanoid supply chain | 16 (15 in basket) | +2.1% | +5.4% | 47% | 2/16 | mixed |
| Magnets & materials | 4 | -17.1% | -13.8% | 25% | 2/4 | breaking |
%B says where price sits inside its normal trading channel. Below 0.20 means it has pulled back to the bottom of that channel — on sale. Above 1.00 is extended: too stretched to buy, and it returned 2.65 pts below simply holding.
Two studies disagree, so this is not a filter the verdict column applies. 46 large caps, 15y, fwd 60d: dips above the 200-day hit 71% vs 68% below — better odds, but below-200d averaged slightly more (+7.16% vs +6.96%). The AI complex, 2023+: dips below the 200-day were the best bucket of all, +7.49 pts vs the null. The Meta trade in the box below was 11.8% below its 200-day. Above = steadier; below = bigger and lumpier. Pick per your tolerance.
Both halves are gates, and 2y pos is often the binding one. p10 is the 10th-percentile outcome across past 2-year holds — your unlucky-but-realistic case; a −50% p10 means one in ten 2-year holds halved. These are the exact thresholds the verdict column applies, not a rule of thumb.
| %B < 0.20 dip rule | 2026-08-21 @ 549.47 | +35.4% | 18 days before the launch, and META was 11.8% below its 200-day |
| move + volume spike | 2026-09-09 @ 653.17 | +13.9% | the day after the launch |
| follow the analyst | 2026-09-21 @ 741.25 | +0.4% | the move was over |
The 3x pair moves with SOXX, so read SOXX's %B and size with SOXL/SOXS's ATR. SOXS is inverse: its %B means the opposite.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXX semis ETF semis_etf |
568.64 | +0.21% | 0.80 | +6.2% | +25.8% | 78% | 2.9% | 4.1B | 95% 4w | +7.3% | 73% of 30 med +6% · CVaR -18% |
$1,208 17% | — | neutral |
| SOXL semis ETF semis_etfleveraged |
147.86 | +0.59% | 0.79 | +16.6% | +27.2% | 43% | 8.1% | 7.9B | 76% 4w | -52.2% | 63% of 30 med +9% · CVaR -57% |
— | — | leveraged · not rated |
| SOXS semis ETF semis_etfleveragedinverse |
33.08 | -0.54% | 0.21 | -20.1% | -84.2% | 0% | 11.7% | 2.6B | 0% 4w | -98.7% | 17% of 36 med -21% · CVaR -65% |
— | — | leveraged · not rated |
The ten holdings behind SOXX, their fund weight, and how much of the day each one contributed (fund weight × its move, so together they explain about 61% of the fund).
| Ticker | Fund wt | 1d | Contrib | Trend | vs 20d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 9.43% | +0.51% | +0.049% | above 20d | |
| MU earnings reported last session | 8.91% | +0.00% | +0.000% | above 20d | |
| AMD | 8.23% | +0.69% | +0.057% | above 20d | |
| AVGO | 7.48% | -1.10% | -0.082% | BELOW 20d | |
| INTC | 5.09% | +3.71% | +0.189% | above 20d | |
| MRVL | 4.66% | +0.36% | +0.017% | above 20d | |
| TSM | 4.65% | -0.16% | -0.008% | above 20d | |
| AMAT | 4.59% | -0.12% | -0.006% | above 20d | |
| LRCX | 4.27% | +1.44% | +0.061% | above 20d | |
| KLAC | 4.12% | -0.81% | -0.034% | above 20d |
Breadth is context, not a trigger. Reproduce every number here with scripts/soxx_breadth_study.py (8 years of SOXX, entry at the next open). Broad strength has no edge: top-10 weight above its 20-day > 80% was +0.04 pts vs the null at 20 days (n=727; +0.00 at 5d, −0.03 at 1d). Weakness in the holdings (breadth < 20%, or their composite %B < 0.20) pointed the same way as SOXX's own dip signal but smaller (about +0.7 to +0.9 pts vs +1.3) and rests on a few hundred overlapping observations, so treat it as noise-level: it adds nothing you cannot read off SOXX's own %B. Use this table to see why SOXX moved, broad or one name, and take the direction call from SOXX's %B. SOXL and SOXS are daily-reset products and are not rated on this page.
META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX — tracked every day whether or not they signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
725.18 | -1.84% | 0.70 | +6.2% | +15.7% | 79% | 3.7% | 10.7B | 79% 4w | -28.1% | 57% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -25% |
$937 13% | — | neutral |
| GOOGL platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
344.08 | +0.93% | 0.57 | +0.5% | +1.7% | 65% | 2.5% | 8.3B | 90% 4w | -0.1% | 71% of 31 med +5% · CVaR -9% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| MSFT platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
512.90 | +0.77% | 0.92 | +2.5% | +19.0% | 87% | 2.3% | 11.2B | 96% 4w | +10.0% | 70% of 27 med +7% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AAPL megacap ndx100megacap |
333.02 | +1.10% | 0.56 | +0.5% | +15.5% | 92% | 2.2% | 13.1B | 99% 4w | +16.2% | 70% of 27 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AMZN megacap ndx100megacap |
249.15 | +1.01% | 0.31 | -1.3% | +3.3% | 59% | 2.3% | 8.6B | 79% 4w | -25.5% | 73% of 30 med +6% · CVaR -22% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| NFLX megacap ndx100megacap |
69.58 | -1.02% | 0.16 | -7.3% | -17.5% | 4% | 3.0% | 2.5B | 77% 4w | -39.2% | 74% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -37% |
$1,184 17% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
Any symbol, priced now. The browser cannot call Yahoo directly (no CORS), so this
goes through this site's own /api/quote and then applies the same formulas as the
nightly table, ported from the Python — so a live check and the tables cannot disagree.
Cached 10 minutes.
%B below 0.2, liquid, and passes the 1–3 year hold gate (≥80% of rolling 2-year windows positive with a 10th percentile above -10%).
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT ndx100 |
103.92 | -2.70% | -0.07 | -3.2% | -11.9% | 12% | 2.2% | 2.4B | 98% 4w | +7.6% | 68% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | 9 | BUY ZONE |
| JBLearnings reported last session humanoid humanoid_disclosed |
286.86 | -10.03% | -0.05 | -6.3% | -4.6% | 49% | 5.0% | 310M | 95% 4w | +8.4% | 61% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -14% |
$696 10% | 5 | BUY ZONE SPIKE -10.0% · 4.1x |
| MNST ndx100 |
41.62 | -0.29% | 0.00 | -4.4% | -1.7% | 50% | 2.5% | 448M | 95% 4w | +3.8% | 66% of 32 med +7% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | 0 | BUY ZONE |
| ADP ndx100 |
258.06 | -1.43% | 0.07 | -4.1% | +9.8% | 72% | 2.1% | 574M | 93% 4w | +3.9% | 67% of 30 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,400 20% cap | 0 | BUY ZONE |
| PAYX ndx100 |
98.50 | -0.82% | 0.08 | -12.6% | -3.8% | 34% | 3.2% | 321M | 88% 4w | -2.6% | 66% of 32 med +5% · CVaR -17% |
$1,108 16% | 0 | BUY ZONE |
| CTAS ndx100 |
195.06 | -1.36% | 0.09 | -1.8% | +4.2% | 61% | 2.1% | 405M | 99% 4w | +22.1% | 67% of 30 med +9% · CVaR -15% |
$1,400 20% cap | 0 | BUY ZONE |
| PCAR ndx100 |
109.81 | -1.78% | 0.12 | -6.7% | -8.7% | 40% | 2.5% | 346M | 98% 4w | +8.1% | 61% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | BUY ZONE |
| AXON ndx100 |
422.52 | +0.70% | 0.17 | -9.3% | -15.2% | 19% | 5.5% | 431M | 98% 4w | +21.0% | 59% of 32 med +20% · CVaR -28% |
$642 9% | — | BUY ZONE |
| CSX ndx100 |
46.51 | -0.89% | 0.19 | -2.8% | +5.7% | 67% | 1.9% | 494M | 90% 4w | -0.2% | 70% of 33 med +5% · CVaR -12% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | BUY ZONE |
A move of 5%+ on 2×+ the 20-day average volume. This is a reaction, not a setup — something happened, and the rule does not know what or which direction it resolves.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBLearnings reported last session humanoid humanoid_disclosed |
286.86 | -10.03% | -0.05 | -6.3% | -4.6% | 49% | 5.0% | 310M | 95% 4w | +8.4% | 61% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -14% |
$696 10% | 5 | BUY ZONE SPIKE -10.0% · 4.1x |
Dips that fail the hold gate, plus names with no measured edge either way.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ ndx100 |
57.82 | -1.67% | -0.15 | -4.8% | -1.2% | 54% | 2.1% | 469M | 79% 4w | -7.7% | 59% of 32 med +3% · CVaR -11% |
$1,400 20% cap | 0 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| KHC ndx100 |
22.72 | -3.11% | -0.09 | -6.6% | -2.4% | 33% | 2.7% | 352M | 37% 4w | -58.1% | 40% of 35 med -1% · CVaR -17% |
$1,296 19% | 1 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| CDW ndx100 |
128.16 | -1.19% | -0.02 | -11.4% | -1.9% | 52% | 4.4% | 231M | 79% 4w | -31.0% | 69% of 32 med +7% · CVaR -17% |
$788 11% | 0 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| KDP ndx100 |
30.34 | -2.22% | 0.07 | -3.4% | +4.7% | 67% | 2.7% | 339M | 70% 4w | -9.3% | 55% of 29 med +1% · CVaR -10% |
$1,296 19% | 0 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| TTD ndx100 |
12.17 | +1.00% | 0.10 | -11.3% | -46.7% | 0% | 4.9% | 268M | 70% 4w | -47.4% | 57% of 30 med +11% · CVaR -40% |
$711 10% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| PEPearnings in 5 sessions ndx100 |
126.72 | -1.53% | 0.10 | -4.9% | -12.5% | 0% | 1.8% | 1.0B | 78% 4w | -11.2% | 58% of 31 med +2% · CVaR -8% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| ROP ndx100 |
349.41 | -0.01% | 0.14 | -7.8% | -5.3% | 18% | 2.7% | 280M | 85% 4w | -15.8% | 64% of 33 med +3% · CVaR -13% |
$1,289 18% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| REGN ndx100 |
758.27 | +1.03% | 0.16 | -4.5% | +3.2% | 68% | 2.6% | 495M | 64% 4w | -31.3% | 47% of 30 med -0% · CVaR -25% |
$1,324 19% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| CSGP ndx100 |
27.40 | +1.67% | 0.16 | -7.0% | -32.3% | 1% | 4.2% | 183M | 62% 4w | -22.8% | 58% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -24% |
$837 12% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| NFLX megacap ndx100megacap |
69.58 | -1.02% | 0.16 | -7.3% | -17.5% | 4% | 3.0% | 2.5B | 77% 4w | -39.2% | 74% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -37% |
$1,184 17% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| CPRT ndx100 |
27.28 | +0.52% | 0.16 | -9.2% | -18.8% | 1% | 3.3% | 286M | 86% 4w | -16.8% | 62% of 32 med +9% · CVaR -17% |
$1,072 15% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| FANG ndx100 |
183.81 | -0.08% | 0.17 | -5.9% | +0.6% | 64% | 3.1% | 381M | 68% 4w | -49.1% | 50% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -34% |
$1,145 16% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| MELI ndx100 |
1,728.53 | +0.21% | 0.17 | -6.3% | -6.1% | 22% | 3.3% | 796M | 78% 4w | -24.0% | 57% of 30 med +10% · CVaR -30% |
$1,066 15% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| BKR ndx100 |
54.90 | -1.82% | 0.17 | -6.8% | -6.9% | 44% | 2.9% | 436M | 66% 4w | -44.0% | 43% of 30 med -0% · CVaR -29% |
$1,187 17% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| INTU ndx100 |
275.71 | +2.87% | 0.18 | -10.2% | -30.3% | 5% | 4.6% | 1.1B | 84% 4w | -10.9% | 67% of 30 med +9% · CVaR -32% |
$753 11% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| ALB materials humanoid_materials |
105.78 | -1.71% | 0.19 | -9.4% | -31.6% | 19% | 4.5% | 266M | 49% 4w | -62.4% | 56% of 32 med +2% · CVaR -27% |
$783 11% | — | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| TSLA humanoid ndx100humanoid_oem |
354.81 | +0.56% | 0.20 | -2.9% | -10.0% | 29% | 3.5% | 12.0B | 74% 4w | -33.4% | 50% of 32 med +2% · CVaR -37% |
$1,012 14% | — | neutral |
| ORCL platform ai_platform |
137.30 | -0.36% | 0.20 | -6.6% | -15.6% | 11% | 5.1% | 4.2B | 98% 4w | +14.4% | 60% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -23% |
$684 10% | — | neutral |
| VRSK ndx100 |
167.85 | +1.15% | 0.20 | -4.7% | -11.5% | 13% | 3.2% | 248M | 83% 4w | -9.6% | 58% of 31 med +2% · CVaR -15% |
$1,086 16% | — | neutral |
| CMCSA ndx100 |
21.76 | +0.74% | 0.20 | -8.8% | -17.4% | 2% | 3.1% | 655M | 57% 4w | -26.9% | 47% of 32 med -0% · CVaR -19% |
$1,135 16% | — | neutral |
| TMUS ndx100 |
163.08 | +0.06% | 0.21 | -5.9% | -14.0% | 1% | 2.8% | 770M | 94% 4w | +8.6% | 67% of 33 med +7% · CVaR -14% |
$1,239 18% | — | neutral |
| ODFL ndx100 |
173.84 | -2.04% | 0.22 | -2.9% | -12.7% | 39% | 3.0% | 323M | 87% 4w | -6.5% | 63% of 30 med +8% · CVaR -20% |
$1,156 17% | — | neutral |
| XEL ndx100 |
70.48 | -0.30% | 0.23 | -3.2% | -8.4% | 9% | 1.9% | 393M | 82% 4w | -6.9% | 61% of 31 med +3% · CVaR -10% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AEP ndx100 |
118.64 | -0.55% | 0.23 | -2.2% | -5.5% | 33% | 1.6% | 458M | 86% 4w | -2.5% | 67% of 30 med +5% · CVaR -14% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| SBUX ndx100 |
93.96 | -1.54% | 0.24 | -4.1% | -3.9% | 55% | 2.3% | 657M | 75% 4w | -8.6% | 52% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -18% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
%B above 1.00 — the stall zone, −2.65 pts vs the null at 60 days. Not a short signal; a not-today signal.
Nothing in this group today.
Buy the dip names at each quarter-end, hold to the next, versus the same number of names drawn at random from the same list (2000 draws), after 0.20% costs. Thresholds were written before each run. Neither variant cleared them, so nothing here changes the verdicts above. The universe is today's AI leaders, which flatters dip entries; the mean is carried by one quarter (2026-03-31) in v1.
| Test | signal qtrs | mean net excess | qtrs positive | ex best qtr | p vs random | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1 · dip (%B < 0.20) | 23 | +4.2 pts | 52% | +1.0 pts | 0.071 | not promoted (failed: P1, P4) |
| v2 · dip + above 200-day | 18 | +3.3 pts | 39% | -4.8 pts | 0.259 | not promoted (failed: P1, P3, P4, P5, P6) |
The 1–3 year durability gate cannot be tested point-in-time on 10 years of data (needs 2016 prior sessions); it is judged forward only. Method and thresholds: docs/experiments/2026-09-24-preregistration-qr-s1-v{1,2}.md.
Daily entries at the next open on the 34 AI stocks over 10 years, edge vs every session for the same names. The rule was fixed before this ran: the grid can only demote the default, never pick a different cell. Result: not demoted — it sits on a plateau. Deeper dips test a little better and every cell is positive, but the default edge is +1.31 pts over 10 years, well below the +3.47 pts measured on 2023+ alone.
| edge vs null, pts | 20d | 40d | 60d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| %B < 0.10 | +1.24 | +1.52 | +1.72 | +1.34 |
| %B < 0.15 | +1.13 | +1.35 | +1.52 | +1.09 |
| %B < 0.20 | +0.98 | +1.17 | +1.31 | +0.63 |
| %B < 0.25 | +0.85 | +1.05 | +1.28 | +0.57 |
| %B < 0.30 | +0.77 | +1.00 | +1.31 | +0.59 |
By year (default cell): 2016 +0.5% · 2017 +2.2% · 2018 +2.1% · 2019 +4.1% · 2020 +8.1% · 2021 +3.2% · 2022 +3.8% · 2023 +4.4% · 2024 +3.5% · 2025 -3.3% · 2026 +4.2%
By market: QQQ above 200 +0.72% · QQQ below 200 +2.16%
Same rule on indices since 1999 (no hand-picked names): QQQ +0.58% · SPY +0.85% · XLK +0.39% — positive on at least 2 of 3. Episodes are counted per name, and the names dip together, so the independent count is far lower than the raw one. Source: scripts/quarterly_rotation/robustness.py.