Ranked by %B ascending — which names are on sale — not by momentum. Measured on the AI complex over the 2023+ wave, forward 60 days: buying dips beat simply holding by +3.47 pts, while buying strength lost 2.65 pts and top-quartile 12-month momentum lost 3.01 pts. Owning the complex at all was worth +17.95%, which is roughly five times what the timing overlay adds. These are daily entries on the names as they stand today (in-sample, overlapping); the quarterly portfolio test further down did not confirm the dip rule.
Descriptive only. Nothing on this page was measured by regime, so it does not change a verdict. Broad risk-off = QQQ below its 200-day with VIX ≥ 25 or up 20% in 5 days; sector washout = SOXX below its 200-day or under 40% of the AI list above theirs.
Descriptive only; no verdict reads it. A theme leads for a few years and then hands over (the COVID winners kept dipping through late 2021 H2 and did not recover; a one-off analysis, not a committed result). "Breaking" = the theme's equal-weight basket is under its own 200-day while at least 40% of its names sit in the dip band at once; that threshold is a display choice, not a tested rule.
| Theme | Names | Basket vs 200d | Basket 20d | Names above 200d | In dip band | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI compute | 9 | +16.5% | -8.6% | 78% | 0/9 | leading |
| AI memory | 4 | +11.5% | -16.7% | 75% | 0/4 | leading |
| Chip equipment | 8 | -7.9% | -17.3% | 25% | 0/8 | weak |
| AI networking | 3 | +7.6% | -4.3% | 67% | 0/3 | leading |
| AI power | 5 | -5.7% | -4.5% | 0% | 0/5 | weak |
| AI platforms | 6 | +9.7% | -0.5% | 50% | 2/6 | mixed |
| Humanoid supply chain | 16 (15 in basket) | +0.6% | -0.2% | 60% | 0/16 | leading |
| Magnets & materials | 4 | -22.1% | -9.6% | 25% | 0/4 | weak |
%B says where price sits inside its normal trading channel. Below 0.20 means it has pulled back to the bottom of that channel — on sale. Above 1.00 is extended: too stretched to buy, and it returned 2.65 pts below simply holding.
Two studies disagree, so this is not a filter the verdict column applies. 46 large caps, 15y, fwd 60d: dips above the 200-day hit 71% vs 68% below — better odds, but below-200d averaged slightly more (+7.16% vs +6.96%). The AI complex, 2023+: dips below the 200-day were the best bucket of all, +7.49 pts vs the null. The Meta trade in the box below was 11.8% below its 200-day. Above = steadier; below = bigger and lumpier. Pick per your tolerance.
Both halves are gates, and 2y pos is often the binding one. p10 is the 10th-percentile outcome across past 2-year holds — your unlucky-but-realistic case; a −50% p10 means one in ten 2-year holds halved. These are the exact thresholds the verdict column applies, not a rule of thumb.
| %B < 0.20 dip rule | 2026-08-21 @ 549.47 | +35.4% | 18 days before the launch, and META was 11.8% below its 200-day |
| move + volume spike | 2026-09-09 @ 653.17 | +13.9% | the day after the launch |
| follow the analyst | 2026-09-21 @ 741.25 | +0.4% | the move was over |
The 3x pair moves with SOXX, so read SOXX's %B and size with SOXL/SOXS's ATR. SOXS is inverse: its %B means the opposite.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXX semis ETF semis_etf |
521.94 | +2.13% | 0.43 | -2.0% | +10.0% | 66% | 3.5% | 4.0B | 95% 4w | +7.3% | 72% of 29 med +5% · CVaR -18% |
$994 14% | — | neutral |
| SOXL semis ETF semis_etfleveraged |
107.35 | +6.20% | 0.38 | -11.2% | -13.3% | 28% | 11.3% | 7.8B | 76% 4w | -52.2% | 62% of 29 med +5% · CVaR -57% |
— | — | leveraged · not rated |
| SOXS semis ETF semis_etfleveragedinverse |
39.78 | -6.40% | 0.49 | -1.0% | -74.5% | 1% | 11.4% | 2.5B | 0% 4w | -98.7% | 17% of 36 med -25% · CVaR -65% |
— | — | leveraged · not rated |
The ten holdings behind SOXX, their fund weight, and how much of the day each one contributed (fund weight × its move, so together they explain about 61% of the fund).
| Ticker | Fund wt | 1d | Contrib | Trend | vs 20d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 9.43% | -1.17% | -0.111% | BELOW 20d | |
| MU | 8.91% | +5.86% | +0.523% | above 20d | |
| AMD earnings in 3 sessions | 8.23% | +3.24% | +0.267% | BELOW 20d | |
| AVGO | 7.48% | +2.77% | +0.207% | above 20d | |
| INTC earnings today | 5.09% | +1.91% | +0.097% | BELOW 20d | |
| MRVL | 4.66% | +3.32% | +0.155% | BELOW 20d | |
| TSM | 4.65% | +0.60% | +0.028% | BELOW 20d | |
| AMAT | 4.59% | +5.07% | +0.233% | BELOW 20d | |
| LRCX | 4.27% | +5.39% | +0.230% | BELOW 20d | |
| KLAC earnings reported last session | 4.12% | +3.33% | +0.137% | BELOW 20d |
Breadth is context, not a trigger. Reproduce every number here with scripts/soxx_breadth_study.py (8 years of SOXX, entry at the next open). Broad strength has no edge: top-10 weight above its 20-day > 80% was +0.04 pts vs the null at 20 days (n=727; +0.00 at 5d, −0.03 at 1d). Weakness in the holdings (breadth < 20%, or their composite %B < 0.20) pointed the same way as SOXX's own dip signal but smaller (about +0.7 to +0.9 pts vs +1.3) and rests on a few hundred overlapping observations, so treat it as noise-level: it adds nothing you cannot read off SOXX's own %B. Use this table to see why SOXX moved, broad or one name, and take the direction call from SOXX's %B. SOXL and SOXS are daily-reset products and are not rated on this page.
META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX — tracked every day whether or not they signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
612.49 | -1.24% | -0.00 | -12.7% | -3.0% | 35% | 3.9% | 11.5B | 79% 4w | -28.1% | 57% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -25% |
$895 13% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| GOOGLearnings reported last session platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
324.89 | +1.34% | 0.18 | -4.4% | -4.7% | 43% | 2.5% | 7.8B | 90% 4w | -0.1% | 71% of 31 med +5% · CVaR -9% |
$1,400 20% cap | 30 | BUY ZONE |
| MSFTearnings reported last session platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
531.01 | -0.06% | 0.54 | +0.2% | +21.7% | 93% | 2.0% | 10.6B | 96% 4w | +10.0% | 70% of 27 med +7% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AAPLearnings in 2 sessions megacap ndx100megacap |
343.83 | -0.94% | 0.66 | +0.9% | +16.4% | 96% | 1.8% | 12.3B | 99% 4w | +16.2% | 69% of 26 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| AMZNearnings today megacap ndx100megacap |
254.60 | +0.59% | 0.47 | -0.2% | +4.6% | 65% | 2.4% | 8.6B | 79% 4w | -25.5% | 72% of 29 med +6% · CVaR -22% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| NFLX megacap ndx100megacap |
61.99 | -0.85% | -0.02 | -9.0% | -24.3% | 0% | 3.3% | 2.4B | 76% 4w | -39.2% | 73% of 30 med +7% · CVaR -37% |
$1,055 15% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
Any symbol, priced now. The browser cannot call Yahoo directly (no CORS), so this
goes through this site's own /api/quote and then applies the same formulas as the
nightly table, ported from the Python — so a live check and the tables cannot disagree.
Cached 10 minutes.
%B below 0.2, liquid, and passes the 1–3 year hold gate (≥80% of rolling 2-year windows positive with a 10th percentile above -10%).
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCAR ndx100 |
102.42 | -1.26% | -0.14 | -5.4% | -14.6% | 22% | 2.8% | 332M | 98% 4w | +8.1% | 61% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -17% |
$1,231 18% | 0 | BUY ZONE |
| BKNGearnings in 3 sessions ndx100 |
147.94 | -1.47% | -0.11 | -6.7% | -16.3% | 0% | 3.5% | 1.1B | 83% 4w | -5.5% | 75% of 32 med +4% · CVaR -19% |
$989 14% | 2 | BUY ZONE |
| ODFLearnings reported last session ndx100 |
173.32 | -7.33% | -0.03 | -5.3% | -13.9% | 39% | 3.4% | 310M | 86% 4w | -7.3% | 63% of 30 med +8% · CVaR -20% |
$1,020 15% | 0 | BUY ZONE SPIKE -7.3% · 2.8x |
| GOOGLearnings reported last session platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
324.89 | +1.34% | 0.18 | -4.4% | -4.7% | 43% | 2.5% | 7.8B | 90% 4w | -0.1% | 71% of 31 med +5% · CVaR -9% |
$1,400 20% cap | 30 | BUY ZONE |
| TMUSearnings reported last session ndx100 |
148.08 | +0.85% | 0.20 | -5.6% | -20.3% | 2% | 3.7% | 788M | 93% 4w | +7.5% | 70% of 33 med +7% · CVaR -14% |
$958 14% | 30 | BUY ZONE |
A move of 5%+ on 2×+ the 20-day average volume. This is a reaction, not a setup — something happened, and the rule does not know what or which direction it resolves.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFLearnings reported last session ndx100 |
173.32 | -7.33% | -0.03 | -5.3% | -13.9% | 39% | 3.4% | 310M | 86% 4w | -7.3% | 63% of 30 med +8% · CVaR -20% |
$1,020 15% | 0 | BUY ZONE SPIKE -7.3% · 2.8x |
| CSGP ndx100 |
27.54 | -13.96% | 0.19 | -9.9% | -25.6% | 1% | 5.7% | 168M | 61% 4w | -25.0% | 58% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -24% |
$612 9% | 2 | DIP · FAILS HOLD SPIKE -14.0% · 3.3x |
| BKR ndx100 |
54.66 | -7.36% | 0.20 | -2.3% | -8.8% | 42% | 3.6% | 380M | 67% 4w | -44.0% | 43% of 30 med -0% · CVaR -29% |
$971 14% | 1 | neutral SPIKE -7.4% · 2.9x |
| VRTearnings reported last session power ai_power |
242.94 | +16.48% | 0.70 | +7.5% | -9.9% | 41% | 5.5% | 1.1B | 80% 4w | -25.9% | 77% of 26 med +17% · CVaR -28% |
$632 9% | 15 | neutral SPIKE +16.5% · 3.3x |
| ORCL platform ai_platform |
144.54 | +10.73% | 0.86 | +7.0% | -7.7% | 18% | 5.1% | 3.6B | 97% 4w | +13.4% | 60% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -23% |
$687 10% | 30 | neutral SPIKE +10.7% · 2.9x |
| GEHCearnings reported last session ndx100 |
75.82 | +6.62% | 1.08 | +10.8% | +8.6% | 57% | 2.7% | 212M | — | — | 67% of 12 med +6% · CVaR -20% |
$1,283 18% | 1 | dip · unmeasured SPIKE +6.6% · 2.8x |
Dips that fail the hold gate, plus names with no measured edge either way.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTWO ndx100 |
195.29 | -2.98% | -0.11 | -4.6% | -11.4% | 8% | 3.1% | 493M | 76% 4w | -25.0% | 50% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -15% |
$1,146 16% | 23 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| NFLX megacap ndx100megacap |
61.99 | -0.85% | -0.02 | -9.0% | -24.3% | 0% | 3.3% | 2.4B | 76% 4w | -39.2% | 73% of 30 med +7% · CVaR -37% |
$1,055 15% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| META platform ndx100ai_platformmegacap |
612.49 | -1.24% | -0.00 | -12.7% | -3.0% | 35% | 3.9% | 11.5B | 79% 4w | -28.1% | 57% of 30 med +3% · CVaR -25% |
$895 13% | 30 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| MELIearnings in 4 sessions ndx100 |
1,673.09 | -0.44% | 0.06 | -7.7% | -8.0% | 16% | 3.8% | 859M | 77% 4w | -24.0% | 57% of 30 med +10% · CVaR -30% |
$914 13% | 1 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| DXCMearnings today ndx100 |
78.62 | +0.08% | 0.13 | -5.7% | +5.6% | 63% | 3.1% | 315M | 64% 4w | -38.3% | 58% of 31 med +10% · CVaR -31% |
$1,119 16% | 0 | DIP · FAILS HOLD |
| CSGP ndx100 |
27.54 | -13.96% | 0.19 | -9.9% | -25.6% | 1% | 5.7% | 168M | 61% 4w | -25.0% | 58% of 31 med +6% · CVaR -24% |
$612 9% | 2 | DIP · FAILS HOLD SPIKE -14.0% · 3.3x |
| BKR ndx100 |
54.66 | -7.36% | 0.20 | -2.3% | -8.8% | 42% | 3.6% | 380M | 67% 4w | -44.0% | 43% of 30 med -0% · CVaR -29% |
$971 14% | 1 | neutral SPIKE -7.4% · 2.9x |
| PHearnings in 5 sessions humanoid humanoid_association |
911.92 | +1.24% | 0.21 | -3.6% | -3.7% | 49% | 2.6% | 559M | 97% 4w | +7.4% | 68% of 31 med +7% · CVaR -23% |
$1,350 19% | — | neutral |
| TER equipment ndx100ai_equipment |
313.24 | -3.23% | 0.22 | -14.5% | -10.2% | 50% | 6.8% | 902M | 75% 4w | -19.2% | 61% of 28 med +9% · CVaR -30% |
$513 7% | — | neutral |
| FCX materials humanoid_materials |
66.60 | +0.99% | 0.23 | -4.3% | +2.6% | 68% | 3.7% | 801M | 71% 4w | -27.3% | 55% of 31 med +5% · CVaR -32% |
$941 13% | — | neutral |
| PDD ndx100 |
77.47 | -1.19% | 0.25 | -2.4% | -15.2% | 6% | 2.5% | 479M | 62% 4w | -43.3% | 54% of 24 med +5% · CVaR -35% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| NVDA compute ndx100ai_computesoxx_top10 |
215.38 | -1.17% | 0.27 | -3.8% | +5.7% | 68% | 2.7% | 23.1B | 95% 4w | +9.5% | 79% of 29 med +11% · CVaR -26% |
$1,276 18% | — | neutral |
| KLACearnings reported last session equipment ndx100ai_equipmentsoxx_top10 |
158.77 | +3.33% | 0.28 | -10.3% | -12.6% | 26% | 4.8% | 1.7B | 100% 4w | +31.7% | 80% of 30 med +8% · CVaR -13% |
$725 10% | — | neutral |
| LRCX equipment ndx100ai_equipmentsoxx_top10 |
253.82 | +5.39% | 0.28 | -11.9% | -10.5% | 39% | 5.7% | 2.6B | 93% 4w | +7.4% | 64% of 28 med +6% · CVaR -18% |
$619 9% | — | neutral |
| MPWRearnings today ndx100 |
1,211.22 | -0.06% | 0.29 | -6.7% | -7.6% | 43% | 4.7% | 817M | 97% 4w | +22.7% | 74% of 31 med +9% · CVaR -24% |
$738 11% | — | neutral |
| COHRearnings in 4 sessions equipment ai_equipment |
239.59 | +1.61% | 0.33 | -11.6% | -19.1% | 37% | 8.2% | 1.9B | 68% 4w | -43.5% | 52% of 29 med +4% · CVaR -26% |
$426 6% | — | neutral |
| AMAT equipment ndx100ai_equipmentsoxx_top10 |
416.00 | +5.07% | 0.33 | -8.6% | -6.1% | 39% | 4.7% | 2.9B | 92% 4w | +1.6% | 68% of 31 med +14% · CVaR -17% |
$742 11% | — | neutral |
| PWRearnings today power ai_power |
606.89 | +4.85% | 0.34 | -5.3% | -2.8% | 52% | 4.6% | 601M | 93% 4w | +4.6% | 73% of 30 med +7% · CVaR -12% |
$761 11% | — | neutral |
| ETNearnings in 3 sessions power ai_power |
392.88 | +2.26% | 0.36 | -3.5% | -0.6% | 54% | 3.9% | 774M | 99% 4w | +13.8% | 75% of 28 med +8% · CVaR -14% |
$896 13% | — | neutral |
| MSTRearnings today ndx100 |
145.16 | +2.66% | 0.36 | -3.1% | +7.6% | 31% | 6.2% | 2.8B | 65% 4w | -40.8% | 50% of 32 med +3% · CVaR -42% |
$560 8% | — | neutral |
| ALNTearnings in 4 sessions humanoid humanoid_association |
96.26 | +2.36% | 0.36 | -5.7% | +17.1% | 68% | 5.7% | 21M | 70% 4w | -31.0% | 58% of 31 med +2% · CVaR -30% |
$612 9% | — | neutral |
| ANETearnings in 3 sessions network ai_network |
186.72 | -0.15% | 0.37 | -4.1% | +13.4% | 70% | 4.6% | 990M | 86% 4w | -12.2% | 77% of 31 med +18% · CVaR -17% |
$763 11% | — | neutral |
| ROST ndx100 |
227.98 | -0.92% | 0.38 | -1.1% | +3.0% | 73% | 2.4% | 481M | 80% 4w | -7.0% | 64% of 28 med +6% · CVaR -20% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | neutral |
| INTCearnings today ndx100soxx_top10 |
95.53 | +1.91% | 0.38 | -4.9% | +10.4% | 58% | 5.6% | 9.4B | 49% 4w | -37.8% | 56% of 32 med +2% · CVaR -24% |
$627 9% | — | neutral |
| ASML equipment ndx100ai_equipment |
1,662.85 | +1.67% | 0.39 | -2.4% | +4.6% | 69% | 3.2% | 2.2B | 93% 4w | +5.5% | 78% of 32 med +10% · CVaR -18% |
$1,087 16% | — | neutral |
%B above 1.00 — the stall zone, −2.65 pts vs the null at 60 days. Not a short signal; a not-today signal.
| Ticker | Close | 1d | %B | vs 20d | vs 200d | range | ATR | $vol/d | 2y pos | 2y p10 | 60d dips | size | msgs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA humanoid ndx100humanoid_oem |
404.22 | -0.80% | 1.02 | +7.3% | +4.8% | 55% | 3.4% | 12.0B | 74% 4w | -33.4% | 52% of 33 med +1% · CVaR -37% |
$1,032 15% | — | extended |
| TXN ndx100 |
309.83 | +0.30% | 1.07 | +7.7% | +20.5% | 88% | 3.0% | 1.5B | 88% 4w | -1.8% | 65% of 31 med +3% · CVaR -14% |
$1,160 17% | — | extended |
| EMRearnings in 4 sessions humanoid humanoid_association |
167.71 | +0.87% | 1.19 | +3.6% | +14.7% | 100% | 2.5% | 381M | 85% 4w | -3.4% | 65% of 31 med +4% · CVaR -13% |
$1,400 20% cap | — | extended |
Buy the dip names at each quarter-end, hold to the next, versus the same number of names drawn at random from the same list (2000 draws), after 0.20% costs. Thresholds were written before each run. Neither variant cleared them, so nothing here changes the verdicts above. The universe is today's AI leaders, which flatters dip entries; the mean is carried by one quarter (2026-03-31) in v1.
| Test | signal qtrs | mean net excess | qtrs positive | ex best qtr | p vs random | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1 · dip (%B < 0.20) | 23 | +4.2 pts | 52% | +1.0 pts | 0.071 | not promoted (failed: P1, P4) |
| v2 · dip + above 200-day | 18 | +3.3 pts | 39% | -4.8 pts | 0.259 | not promoted (failed: P1, P3, P4, P5, P6) |
The 1–3 year durability gate cannot be tested point-in-time on 10 years of data (needs 2016 prior sessions); it is judged forward only. Method and thresholds: docs/experiments/2026-09-24-preregistration-qr-s1-v{1,2}.md.
Daily entries at the next open on the 34 AI stocks over 10 years, edge vs every session for the same names. The rule was fixed before this ran: the grid can only demote the default, never pick a different cell. Result: not demoted — it sits on a plateau. Deeper dips test a little better and every cell is positive, but the default edge is +1.31 pts over 10 years, well below the +3.47 pts measured on 2023+ alone.
| edge vs null, pts | 20d | 40d | 60d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| %B < 0.10 | +1.24 | +1.52 | +1.72 | +1.34 |
| %B < 0.15 | +1.13 | +1.35 | +1.52 | +1.09 |
| %B < 0.20 | +0.98 | +1.17 | +1.31 | +0.63 |
| %B < 0.25 | +0.85 | +1.05 | +1.28 | +0.57 |
| %B < 0.30 | +0.77 | +1.00 | +1.31 | +0.59 |
By year (default cell): 2016 +0.5% · 2017 +2.2% · 2018 +2.1% · 2019 +4.1% · 2020 +8.1% · 2021 +3.2% · 2022 +3.8% · 2023 +4.4% · 2024 +3.5% · 2025 -3.3% · 2026 +4.2%
By market: QQQ above 200 +0.72% · QQQ below 200 +2.16%
Same rule on indices since 1999 (no hand-picked names): QQQ +0.58% · SPY +0.85% · XLK +0.39% — positive on at least 2 of 3. Episodes are counted per name, and the names dip together, so the independent count is far lower than the raw one. Source: scripts/quarterly_rotation/robustness.py.