Nasdaq-100 + the AI / humanoid complex · 146 of 147 resolved

AI & Humanoid Screen

Ranked by %B ascending — which names are on sale — not by momentum. Measured on the AI complex over the 2023+ wave, forward 60 days: buying dips beat simply holding by +3.47 pts, while buying strength lost 2.65 pts and top-quartile 12-month momentum lost 3.01 pts. Owning the complex at all was worth +17.95%, which is roughly five times what the timing overlay adds.

1. Is it on sale?%B < 0.20

%B says where price sits inside its normal trading channel. Below 0.20 means it has pulled back to the bottom of that channel — on sale. Above 1.00 is extended: too stretched to buy, and it returned 2.65 pts below simply holding.

2. Above or below the 200-day?a trade-off, not a gate

Two studies disagree, so this is not a filter the verdict column applies. 46 large caps, 15y, fwd 60d: dips above the 200-day hit 71% vs 68% below — better odds, but below-200d averaged slightly more (+7.16% vs +6.96%). The AI complex, 2023+: dips below the 200-day were the best bucket of all, +7.49 pts vs the null. The Meta trade in the box below was 11.8% below its 200-day. Above = steadier; below = bigger and lumpier. Pick per your tolerance.

3. Does it survive bad timing? 2y pos ≥ 80% AND 2y p10 > -10%

Both halves are gates, and 2y pos is often the binding one. p10 is the 10th-percentile outcome across past 2-year holds — your unlucky-but-realistic case; a −50% p10 means one in ten 2-year holds halved. These are the exact thresholds the verdict column applies, not a rule of thumb.

The exit is a rule, not a guess — but be clear which rule. Everything in these tables is a fixed hold: the +3.47 / −2.65 / +7.49 pt figures are 60 trading days, entry at the next open, and the 2y pos / 2y p10 columns are 504-day holds. Nothing on this page measures a middle-band exit.
Selling on the first close above the 20-day middle band is the rule used by the separate SOXX/SOXL/SOXS band strategy in the morning brief, and it is a reasonable discipline — it just is not what produced these numbers. Reproduce the tabulated edge by holding the horizon, not by exiting at the midband.
Why there are two signals. Meta launched Muse on 2026-09-08 and ran +20.3% before the first analyst upgrade on 09-21 — following that upgrade captured 2% of the move. Replaying these rules over those sessions:
%B < 0.20 dip rule2026-08-21 @ 549.47+35.4%18 days before the launch, and META was 11.8% below its 200-day
move + volume spike2026-09-09 @ 653.17+13.9%the day after the launch
follow the analyst2026-09-21 @ 741.25+0.4%the move was over
The dip rule caught it by accident — it was buying a drawdown, not predicting a product. The spike rule reacts to the catalyst, late but not uselessly. They are labelled separately so a reaction is never mistaken for a setup.

Semis — SOXX / SOXL / SOXS

The 3x pair moves with SOXX, so read SOXX's %B and size with SOXL/SOXS's ATR. SOXS is inverse: its %B means the opposite.

TickerClose1d%Bvs 20dvs 200drangeATR$vol/d2y pos2y p10msgsVerdict
SOXX
semis_etf		 565.72-1.23% 1.01 +8.4%+27.0%77% 3.2%4.3B 95% 4w +7.3%— extended
SOXL
semis_etfleveraged		 146.25-3.75% 0.99 +23.3%+28.5%43% 8.8%8.1B 76% 4w -52.2%— leveraged · not rated
SOXS
semis_etfleveragedinverse		 33.66+3.82% -0.00 -25.4%-81.8%0% 13.5%2.6B 0% 4w -98.7%17 leveraged · not rated

Mega caps

META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX — tracked every day whether or not they signal.

TickerClose1d%Bvs 20dvs 200drangeATR$vol/d2y pos2y p10msgsVerdict
META
ndx100ai_platformmegacap		 744.10+1.02% 0.96 +16.0%+19.2%94% 3.5%10.5B 79% 4w -28.1%— neutral
GOOGL
ndx100ai_platformmegacap		 337.83-3.80% 0.34 -1.2%+0.1%61% 2.7%8.8B 90% 4w -0.1%— neutral
MSFT
ndx100ai_platformmegacap		 500.59+0.52% 0.55 +0.2%+16.3%80% 2.2%11.5B 96% 4w +10.0%— neutral
AAPL
ndx100megacap		 337.02-0.80% 0.79 +3.1%+17.5%97% 2.1%13.6B 99% 4w +16.2%— neutral
AMZN
ndx100megacap		 249.27-2.24% 0.18 -2.3%+3.6%59% 2.4%8.9B 79% 4w -25.5%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
NFLX
ndx100megacap		 71.36-1.11% 0.06 -8.1%-16.0%7% 3.2%2.5B 77% 4w -39.2%— DIP · FAILS HOLD

Buy zone

%B below 0.2, liquid, and passes the 1–3 year hold gate (≥80% of rolling 2-year windows positive with a 10th percentile above -10%).

TickerClose1d%Bvs 20dvs 200drangeATR$vol/d2y pos2y p10msgsVerdict
CTAS
ndx100		 191.97-2.49% -0.17 -4.1%+2.8%55% 2.1%380M 99% 4w +23.3%1 BUY ZONE
PAYX
ndx100		 104.49-9.15% -0.17 -12.8%+1.9%48% 3.2%312M 88% 4w -2.1%2 BUY ZONE
SPIKE -9.1% · 3.1x
AEP
ndx100		 118.40-1.36% -0.08 -3.3%-5.6%43% 1.7%470M 86% 4w -2.5%0 BUY ZONE
PCAR
ndx100		 112.09-2.30% -0.07 -8.2%-6.7%45% 2.6%341M 98% 4w +8.1%0 BUY ZONE
XEL
ndx100		 70.66-1.66% -0.06 -5.2%-8.3%4% 1.9%393M 82% 4w -6.9%0 BUY ZONE
CSCO
ndx100		 106.43-0.01% 0.02 -2.9%+10.6%64% 2.8%2.0B 82% 4w -3.2%5 BUY ZONE
TMUS
ndx100		 165.66+0.24% 0.03 -6.9%-13.2%1% 3.3%797M 95% 4w +8.9%— BUY ZONE
BKNG
ndx100		 155.90-5.07% 0.07 -14.4%-15.1%4% 4.4%1.1B 84% 4w -5.0%— BUY ZONE
ADP
ndx100		 263.68-2.32% 0.09 -4.1%+12.4%78% 2.1%580M 93% 4w +4.2%— BUY ZONE
CCEP
ndx100		 99.69-0.84% 0.10 -5.1%+1.9%57% 2.2%183M 94% 4w +5.4%— BUY ZONE
VRSK
ndx100		 171.80-0.13% 0.12 -6.0%-10.1%17% 3.6%261M 83% 4w -9.1%— BUY ZONE
CSX
ndx100		 47.19+2.61% 0.19 -3.8%+8.0%71% 2.2%507M 90% 4w -0.2%— BUY ZONE

Catalyst spikes today

A move of 5%+ on 2×+ the 20-day average volume. This is a reaction, not a setup — something happened, and the rule does not know what or which direction it resolves.

TickerClose1d%Bvs 20dvs 200drangeATR$vol/d2y pos2y p10msgsVerdict
PAYX
ndx100		 104.49-9.15% -0.17 -12.8%+1.9%48% 3.2%312M 88% 4w -2.1%2 BUY ZONE
SPIKE -9.1% · 3.1x
ABNB
ndx100		 149.58-10.35% -0.12 -14.7%+5.2%48% 3.8%624M — —7 dip · unmeasured
SPIKE -10.3% · 3.0x

Near the band / neutral

Dips that fail the hold gate, plus names with no measured edge either way.

TickerClose1d%Bvs 20dvs 200drangeATR$vol/d2y pos2y p10msgsVerdict
FANG
ndx100		 185.65-1.91% -0.11 -7.1%+2.1%67% 3.5%382M 68% 4w -49.1%1 DIP · FAILS HOLD
KHC
ndx100		 23.79-2.38% -0.04 -3.9%+2.3%49% 2.8%357M 37% 4w -58.1%1 DIP · FAILS HOLD
INTU
ndx100		 286.80-5.70% -0.03 -13.0%-29.5%7% 4.9%1.2B 84% 4w -10.2%6 DIP · FAILS HOLD
TTD
ndx100		 12.68-3.79% -0.02 -9.5%-46.1%0% 5.4%268M 70% 4w -46.8%27 DIP · FAILS HOLD
CSGP
ndx100		 28.26-2.69% 0.00 -8.2%-32.1%2% 4.4%184M 62% 4w -22.7%0 DIP · FAILS HOLD
PEP
ndx100		 130.18+0.46% 0.03 -4.6%-10.3%2% 1.7%1.1B 78% 4w -11.1%3 DIP · FAILS HOLD
NFLX
ndx100megacap		 71.36-1.11% 0.06 -8.1%-16.0%7% 3.2%2.5B 77% 4w -39.2%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
CPRT
ndx100		 28.87-0.14% 0.06 -8.7%-14.9%9% 3.7%302M 87% 4w -15.9%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
SBUX
ndx100		 94.14-0.80% 0.11 -7.4%-3.4%55% 2.6%657M 75% 4w -8.6%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
MELI
ndx100		 1,799.24-1.17% 0.11 -5.6%-2.7%26% 3.3%744M 78% 4w -24.0%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
ROP
ndx100		 366.36+0.26% 0.11 -8.0%-1.4%26% 2.8%285M 85% 4w -15.1%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
CMCSA
ndx100		 22.55+0.58% 0.12 -10.1%-14.6%6% 3.3%667M 57% 4w -26.8%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
ADBE
ndx100		 240.69+1.02% 0.16 -8.9%-8.7%28% 4.1%1.2B 64% 4w -43.1%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
AMZN
ndx100megacap		 249.27-2.24% 0.18 -2.3%+3.6%59% 2.4%8.9B 79% 4w -25.5%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
TTWO
ndx100		 206.32-1.71% 0.19 -5.2%-8.8%23% 3.7%505M 76% 4w -25.0%— DIP · FAILS HOLD
ALB
humanoid_materials		 113.47+0.49% 0.22 -8.8%-26.9%25% 4.6%269M 49% 4w -62.4%— neutral
AXON
ndx100		 450.61-0.32% 0.23 -12.0%-10.3%24% 5.9%449M 98% 4w +21.9%— neutral
ORCL
ai_platform		 144.56-3.11% 0.28 -3.5%-12.2%15% 4.9%4.3B 98% 4w +14.7%— neutral
RRX
humanoid_disclosed		 152.42+1.12% 0.28 -3.1%-18.9%22% 4.2%203M 80% 4w -7.0%— neutral
BKR
ndx100		 58.03+0.35% 0.28 -4.3%-1.1%56% 3.1%446M 65% 4w -44.0%— neutral
ODFL
ndx100		 177.72+1.35% 0.28 -4.2%-10.4%43% 3.3%311M 88% 4w -5.7%— neutral
VRTX
ndx100		 516.34+1.10% 0.29 -2.8%+9.7%77% 2.4%582M 92% 4w +1.7%— neutral
MDLZ
ndx100		 61.44+2.11% 0.30 -0.9%+4.5%75% 2.1%479M 79% 4w -7.6%— neutral
TRI
ndx100		 98.45+3.16% 0.31 -3.5%+0.6%28% 4.4%152M 90% 4w -2.3%— neutral
ADSK
ndx100		 217.15-0.78% 0.31 -6.2%-10.5%21% 4.1%450M 74% 4w -26.7%— neutral

Extended

%B above 1.00 — the stall zone, −2.65 pts vs the null at 60 days. Not a short signal; a not-today signal.

TickerClose1d%Bvs 20dvs 200drangeATR$vol/d2y pos2y p10msgsVerdict
ETN
ai_power		 438.76+0.76% 1.01 +7.0%+14.4%86% 3.4%774M 99% 4w +14.0%— extended
SOXX
semis_etf		 565.72-1.23% 1.01 +8.4%+27.0%77% 3.2%4.3B 95% 4w +7.3%— extended
TXN
ndx100		 272.62+0.65% 1.03 +4.2%+12.1%68% 3.2%1.8B 88% 4w -1.8%— extended
AME
humanoid_association		 246.45+2.16% 1.03 +3.9%+8.3%85% 2.2%276M 99% 4w +15.3%— extended
ZS
ndx100		 214.45+3.53% 1.04 +17.6%+27.7%44% 4.6%411M 67% 4w -36.5%— extended
MPWR
ndx100		 1,355.47+6.09% 1.04 +10.1%+7.2%60% 4.1%965M 97% 4w +22.7%— extended
ADI
ndx100		 385.23+0.58% 1.04 +5.2%+9.1%73% 3.0%1.3B 98% 4w +15.1%— extended
ENTG
ai_equipment		 150.93+5.44% 1.06 +9.8%+16.6%71% 4.7%323M 73% 4w -20.8%— extended
STX
ndx100ai_memory		 923.86+5.30% 1.06 +10.3%+47.8%81% 5.6%3.9B 80% 4w -13.2%— extended
NXPI
ndx100humanoid_association		 235.44+1.30% 1.06 +4.3%-3.2%37% 3.3%852M 71% 4w -11.7%— extended
BIIB
ndx100		 227.53+3.86% 1.09 +4.2%+17.7%100% 2.7%185M 33% 4w -45.3%— extended
TEL
humanoid_association		 214.39+2.09% 1.11 +4.2%+0.3%39% 2.8%398M 83% 4w -7.9%— extended
WBD
ndx100		 30.76-0.13% 1.19 +7.7%+11.6%100% 1.7%513M 40% 4w -61.0%— extended
ALNT
humanoid_association		 113.60+3.89% 1.22 +18.8%+49.7%99% 5.0%22M 70% 4w -31.0%— extended